For decades, the IRGC has expanded its influence in Iran’s parliament and national-security apparatus, and the next president may even come from its ranks. The IRGC’s vociferous opposition to nuclear concessions and improving ties with the West raises serious questions over whether future Iranian governments will uphold any nuclear deal that the current one signs.
Rouhani is fighting a two-front war. Abroad, he is engaged in diplomatic arm-wrestling with the P5+1 international negotiators, seeking to pocket maximal gains for Iran while minimizing Tehran’s concessions. Meanwhile, Rouhani’s cabinet is torn between public demands for jobs and human rights, the creeping infiltration of the IRGC, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s dogged attempts to maintain the status quo at all costs.
The Iranian president is well aware of the IRGC machinations against his cabinet, and warned the public in August 2014: “The saboteurs … have left the think tanks and are now in the operations room.” Three months later, a news outlet close to the Green Movement released a two–part account of the IRGC Intelligence Organization’s moves against Rouhani. According to the report, the Guards already have a shadow government in place that is engaged in psychological operations and inciting the mob against the government.
In the wake of those reports, fifteen parliamentarians summoned Intelligence Minister Hojjat al-Eslam Mahmoud Alavi to explain how the information had reached “the counterrevolutionary press,” and to help determine the appropriate punishment for whomever responsible. Meanwhile, the exposed IRGC plot against Rouhani’s cabinet has unsurprisingly gone unpunished.
While Khamenei may use the rivalry between Rouhani and the IRGC to maintain the factional balance of power, there is no doubt that Rouhani is merely a tenant at the presidential palace and not its owner. In two years or six (depending on whether he is re-elected), he will be replaced as president, and his successor – like his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – is likely to be recruited from the ranks of IRGC veterans.
Rouhani is one man, whereas the IRGC is an institution which has struck ever-deeper roots since the 1979 revolution, and whose influence within the various arms of the regime shows no signs of abating. Should negotiators find a way to close the remaining gaps and reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, they must remember that it is not Rouhani but the Guards who will likely be given the task of its implementation or dismissal.
By: Ali Alfoneh
Iran Briefing | News Press Focus on Human Rights Violation by IRGC, Iran Human Rights
Nov 29, 2017 Comments Off on Iran Reshapes the Middle East
Nov 24, 2017 Comments Off on Commander Highlights Iran’s Role in Regional, Global Equations
Nov 21, 2017 Comments Off on Saudi Arabia May Have Just Gifted Lebanon to Iran
Nov 02, 2017 Comments Off on IRAN: MEDIA AFFILIATED TO KHAMENEI EXPRESS FEAR OF SANCTIONS AGAINST IRGC
Dec 10, 2017 Comments Off on Johnson Meets Rohani, Discusses Case Of Jailed Iranian-British Woman
Dec 05, 2017 Comments Off on Three Activists Sentenced to Prison in Trial “Directed” by Iran’s Intelligence Ministry
Dec 04, 2017 Comments Off on Saleh’s killing throws Iran’s Yemen strategy into disarray
Nov 27, 2017 Comments Off on Iran-backed militia in Syria says it’s ‘fully prepared’ to battle Israel
Dec 10, 2017 Comments Off on Johnson Meets Rohani, Discusses Case Of Jailed Iranian-British WomanJohnson Meets Rohani, Discusses Case Of Jailed Iranian-British Woman Britain’s Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson met with Iranian President Hassan Rohani in Tehran on December 10 as he continued efforts to gain the...
Dec 04, 2017 Comments Off on Saleh’s killing throws Iran’s Yemen strategy into disarraySaleh’s killing throws Iran’s Yemen strategy into disarray The surprise decision of Yemen’s slain former leader, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to reach out to Saudi Arabia, was widely interpreted as heralding...
Jul 14, 2016 Comments Off on Corps’ one hundred thousand of triggered missiles in Lebanon:An official Israel-threatening by CorpsIran Briefing: Since August 7, 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini declared the last Friday of Ramadhan as “Quds Day”, the Islamic Republic has always tried to hold an imposing ceremony by using state resources as well as requiring people’s involvement. This year’s Quds march had fundamental...