Tillerson said the Trump administration is reviewing America’s overall Iran policy, a welcome opportunity to end nearly 40 years of botched rapprochement. A good place to start is by recognizing two basic realities: The regime is vulnerable to a hostile population eager to overthrow it, and the notion that the mullocracy can “reform” itself is a dangerous illusion that prolongs past mistakes.
A new approach, which enhances Washington’s policy options, would be political backing of the Iranian people’s decades-long desire to achieve democratic change.
The previous administration ignored the people, instead, setting its sights on reforms within the regime. But hopes for reform fell flat during the tenure of Hassan Rouhani, who enriched Tehran’s terrorists and executed opponents at an alarming rate.
Last month, Ebrahim Raisi, a prominent ally of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, announced he would challenge Rouhani in the upcoming presidential elections. The spectacle is prompting some in the West to once again trot out the “reformers vs. hardliners” horse race. But both men are veterans of suppression at home and export of terrorism abroad, and both have proven their loyalty to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Are there no differences between them? Of course there are, but they are limited to style rather than substance. Not only are the regime’s officials unwilling to reform major policies, but Khamenei has also effectively guaranteed that they will remain unable to do so for the foreseeable future.
In 2005, Khamenei ordered the government to transfer 80 percent of its holdings to “non-governmental public, private and cooperative sectors” — i.e., Khamenei and his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — by 2009.
A month later, the obscure Ahmadinejad beat the famous former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to become president. Ahmadinejad’s election was no fluke. He quickly stacked ministries with veterans of the paramilitary IRGC. Half of his cabinet members were IRGC. A year earlier, IRGC veterans had won a majority of seats in parliament.
The newly released “The Rise of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ Financial Empire” describes the transformation as a power grab of overwhelming proportions. By some estimates, $12 billion worth of assets were transferred to Khamenei and the IRGC from 2005 to 2008. Today, one of the financial empires run by Khamenei, called the Setad, has assets worth well over $90 billion.
Iran Briefing | News Press Focus on Human Rights Violation by IRGC, Iran Human Rights
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