The story: Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has been widely condemned in Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has charged that the ‘Axis of Resistance’ will intensify attacks on Israel, but stopped short of vowing any direct revenge by the Islamic Republic. This comes as some Iranians are calling for a review of nuclear policy, arguing that a nuclear deterrent is necessary to stave off an attack by Israel.
The coverage: Hezbollah, a long-time ally of Iran, on Sept. 28 confirmed the death of Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut the previous day.
- The Lebanese movement did not explicitly say it would avenge Nasrallah, but insisted that it would continue to fight in support of Palestinians. Hezbollah has been launching cross-border attacks since the outbreak of the Gaza war in Oct. 2023.
- The Israeli airstrike also killed Abbas Nilforoushan, deputy commander of operations of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Nilforoushan was also the acting head of IRGC Quds Force operations in the Levant.
Khamenei condemned the assassination of Nasrallah shortly after Hezbollah confirmed his death.
- Khamenei said in a statement that the Lebanese movement had “lost an unparalleled leader” while the Islamic world had “lost a noble figure.”
- Nasrallah was “martyred while busy making plans for defending the defenseless people of Beirut,” Khamenei said, hailing the Lebanese leader for “fighting for the oppressed people of Palestine.”
- Khamenei did not vow to directly avenge Nasrallah, but threatened that attacks on Israel by the ‘Axis of Resistance’ “will become even more crushing.”
President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sept. 28 alleged that the US was also culpable in Nasrallah’s death and accused it of securing Iran’s restraint by making false pledges about a truce in Gaza.
- The Reformist president insisted that “the Americans cannot exonerate themselves from collaborating with the Zionists.”
- Pezeshkian maintained that the killing of senior figures associated with the ‘Axis of Resistance’—including Nasrallah—would only “further strengthen the tree of resistance.”
- Pezeshkian also charged that European and US leaders “had promised a ceasefire in exchange for Iran’s non-response to the assassination of Martyr [Ismail] Haniyen,” slamming the alleged pledge as “completely false.” Hamas political bureau chief Haniyeh was killed in a suspected Israeli operation in Tehran on July 31, only hours after attending the Iranian president’s inauguration.
- Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran’s “reaction will come at an appropriate time” and that any decision will be taken “at the highest level”—referring to Khamenei.
- Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that Nasrallah’s “blood will guarantee the continuation of Hezbollah’s just cause.”
Prominent Iranian figures from across the political spectrum have also condemned the killing of Nasrallah.
- Former parliament speaker Ali Larijani (2008-20) was among the first to comment on the assassination, accusing the west—particularly the US—of being “accessories to [Israel’s] crime.” Larijani, who now serves as an advisor to Khamenei, urged the region to stand up to Israel “so that nobody in the region will be allowed to show such arrogance toward Muslims.”
- Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf slammed the “vampiric Zionist villains” whose existence, he said, was “the biggest disgrace in human history.” Quoting Khamenei, Qalibaf insisted that the ‘Axis of Resistance’ “will decide the fate of the region.”
- Mehdi Karroubi, one of the leaders of the Green Movement, on Sept. 29 charged that Israel was founded on “crimes, aggressions, and genocide of the Palestinians.”
IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qa’ani vowed that Iran would stand by Hezbollah “until the conquest of Palestine and the liberation of Quds [Jerusalem].”
- Other prominent figures who condemned Nasrallah’s killing include former first vice President Mohammad Mokhber (2021-24), ex-national security advisor Saeed Jalili (2007-13), and multiple senior lawmakers.
Meanwhile, some Iranians are arguing that it is high time for the country to develop a nuclear deterrent.
- Commentator Peyman Aref on Sept. 28 charged, “The terrorist government of Israel has left no choice for Iran but to review its nuclear doctrine.”
- Diako Hosseini, a geopolitical analyst based in Tehran, argued on Sept. 28 that developing nuclear weapons “has more supporters in Iran now.”
Hardline political commentator Yasser Jebraily on Sept. 29 called on “Muslim brothers” in Azerbaijan and Turkey to stop oil supplies to Israel—a demand made last year by Khamenei.
- The commentator alleged that Israel receives about 40% of its oil from “pipelines that run through your countries,” adding, “You can cut off this lifeline.”
- The bulk of Israel’s oil supply from Muslim nations comes from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Of note, Azerbaijani crude exports transit through Turkey to reach Israel.
The context/analysis: Nasrallah was born in 1960 to a poor family in the Lebanese capital, Beirut.
- Contrary to some claims, he did not co-found Hezbollah. Rather, he reportedly joined the movement after it was formed in the early 1980s to fight Israel’s occupation of Lebanon and worked his way up the ranks.
- Following the 1992 killing of then-Hezbollah chief Abbas Al-Musawi, 32-year-old Nasrallah was chosen as the movement’s leader.
- Nasrallah established a strong rapport with Iran and especially Supreme Leader Khamenei. During his three-decade leadership of Hezbollah, he built it into a considerable political and military force in Lebanon and a key regional actor.
- Hezbollah has significant support among Shiite Muslims but its popularity in Lebanon and indeed the wider Arab world—particularly following its intervention in Syria in support of President Bashar Al-Assad—is a subject of debate.
Hezbollah and Israel have been trading fire since the early days of the Gaza war, with the Lebanese group labeling its operations as a “support front” for the Palestinians.
- Israel launched the Gaza offensive after Hamas-led Palestinian fighters attacked Israeli border communities, killing some 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages back to the enclave.
- More than 41,000 people in Gaza have been killed in Israeli attacks since the start of the war, according to local health officials.
- Hezbollah’s attacks have forced Israelis living near the border with Lebanon to flee. Tel Aviv says its goal is to return calm to its northern border so that residents can return home.
Israel has intensified its attacks on Lebanon in recent weeks, insisting that it is targeting Hezbollah. However, casualties include hundreds of civilians.
- During the almost year-long conflict, Israel has killed at least seven senior commanders of Hezbollah, with White House National Security spokesman John Kirby suggesting that Hezbollah’s leadership has been “nearly decimated.”
- However, all assassinated Hezbollah commanders have already been replaced, Iran has alleged.
Talks of the possibility of Iran revising its nuclear doctrine and moving towards atomic weapons has gained momentum in recent months.
- However, such suggestions were widely criticized at home when they were last brought up in Apr. 2024 as Iran and Israel exchanged direct fire for the first time.
The future: The lack of an overt Iranian pledge to avenge Nasrallah is notable and an indication that a direct attack on Israel is not in the cards, at least for now.
- Iran has been under pressure for not delivering on its vow to avenge Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran in July.
- Failing to deliver on another vow of vengeance would risk making Iran look weak and losing credibility among its regional allies. This could be a factor in the Islamic Republic’s apparent avoidance of any threat of direct action.
For now, Iran is focused on taking stock of the state of its network of regional allies—particularly given Israel’s penetration of Hezbollah’s communications and internal security apparatus. The Quds Force is also likely to be mobilized to fill the vacuum left by the killing of Nilforoushan and to help Hezbollah regroup.
- As Israel presses on with its attacks in Lebanon, Iran could press for the further activation of other fronts, particularly in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
- Israel has already turned its attention to Yemen’s Ansarullah movement, better known as the Houthis, which has targeted Tel Aviv as well as shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with the Palestinians.
- Late on Sept. 29, Israeli aircraft reportedly bombed port facilities and oil depots once again in apparent response to the Houthis firing ballistic missiles at Israel. However, such operations have in the past failed to deter the Yemeni group from launching attacks.