Iran is preparing an attack on Israel in response to the recent strikes on Iranian military sites that will use more powerful warheads and “other weapons” not used in its previous two attacks, Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans told The Wall Street Journal Sunday.
At the same time, Iran’s president said a potential ceasefire between Israel and its allies Hamas and Hezbollah “could affect the intensity” of Tehran’s threatened attack.
Iranian leaders have warned they will mete out a “punishing” reprisal attack against Israel for a series of retaliatory sorties on October 26 — themselves a reaction to a massive Iranian ballistic missile attack — that Jerusalem says knocked out the Islamic Republic’s air defenses and missile production capabilities. Reports have indicated the response could come as soon as this week.
An Egyptian official told The Journal that Tehran warned Cairo privately that its response to Israel will be “strong and complex.”
An Iranian official reportedly said that because its military lost four soldiers and a civilian, there is a necessity to respond.
The report said Iran’s military will be involved in the operation, marking a departure from the April 13-14 and October 1 missile attacks which were carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The official said the attack will target Israeli military sites “much more aggressively than last time,” and that Iraqi territory may be used to launch projectiles.
But according to state news agency IRNA, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said: “If [the Israelis] reconsider their behavior, accept a ceasefire and stop massacring the oppressed and innocent people of the region, it could affect the intensity and type of our response.”
He added that Iran “will not leave unanswered any aggression against its sovereignty and security,” according to the news agency.
On Thursday, senior White House aides Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein were in Israel for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior officials about conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both backed by Iran.
The meetings focused on efforts to secure a 60-day ceasefire deal in Lebanon and to assess new proposals floated by mediators to free Israeli hostages being held in Gaza, according to a US official familiar with planning for the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.
With the US election on Tuesday and deep differences remaining between the sides, hopes for immediate progress appeared remote.
Nonetheless, Israel’s Channel 12 news quoted an unnamed official Sunday saying that a deal to end the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon could be inked within two weeks.
The Kan public broadcaster on Wednesday published the details of what it said was a draft agreement drawn up by the US for a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel is seeking a deal that implements UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which forbids Hezbollah from maintaining a presence south of the Litani River. However, Jerusalem reportedly also wants to be able to re-engage the terror group in southern Lebanon if it feels threatened.
Israel said the October 26 airstrikes on Iran were in retaliation for Tehran firing some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1, sending most of the population rushing to bomb shelters and safe rooms. Tehran’s attack caused relatively minor damage to military bases and some residential areas, and killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank. Iran claimed its attack was in response to the killing of Iran-backed terror group leaders and an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander.
Since the strikes last month, Israel and the US have warned Iran against retaliating, but Sunday’s comments appeared to be the first public statement since the October 26 attack showing Iran may be willing to back down.
Pezeshkian is considered more of a moderate than hardliners within the powerful IRGC said to be pushing for a stronger response.
On Saturday, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters of the state, said the Islamic Republic would indeed retaliate.
“The enemies, both the USA and the Zionist regime, should know that they will definitely receive a tooth-breaking response to what they are doing against Iran, the Iranian nation, and the resistance front,” Khamenei said in a speech to students in Tehran.
He was referring to the alliance of Tehran-backed armed groups that include Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamist terror group Hamas and Shiite militias in Iraq.
Reports have nonetheless indicated that Iran may be attempting to calibrate its response to limit any possible blowback from Israel. The country initially downplayed the extent of the damage from the Israeli strikes, with its armed forces saying the attack killed four military personnel and caused “limited damage” to a few radar systems.
The 85-year-old Khamenei had struck a more cautious approach in earlier remarks, saying officials would weigh Iran’s response and that Israel’s attack “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed.”
But efforts by Iran to dismiss the Israeli attack faltered as satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press showed damage to military bases near Tehran linked to the country’s ballistic missile program, as well as at a Revolutionary Guard base used in satellite launches.
A New York Times report last week citing sources with knowledge of the thinking in Tehran said Khamenei had felt compelled to order a reprisal due to the scale of the damage from the multi-hour assault.
On Thursday, Netanyahu said the strikes on Iranian air defenses had resulted in Israel being able to overfly anywhere in Iran.
Iranians in various cities nationwide took to the streets against Israel and the US in state-organized rallies on Sunday to mark the anniversary of the takeover of the American embassy following the 1979 revolution, state television showed.
In Tehran, thousands at the gate of the former US Embassy chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” Some burned flags of the countries and effigies of Netanyahu.
They also carried images of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and erstwhile Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, both killed by Israel in recent weeks. The crowd chanted they were ready to defend the Palestinians.
Speaking in the capital, IRGC head Gen. Hossein Salami echoed Khamenei’s threats from a day earlier.
“The resistance front and Iran will equip itself with whatever necessary to confront and defeat the enemy,” he said.