Iran has spent decades assembling its “axis of resistance,” a loose network of armed proxies and allies against Israel.
But on October 7, Hamas — the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group that is a key member of Iran’s axis — launched a deadly cross-border assault on Israel, killing nearly 1,200 Israelis and taking a further 251 hostages.
One year on, how much has Israel weakened key members of the axis and how near is all-out war with Iran?
‘Hezbollah Reduced To Almost Nothing’
Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said that by taking on Iranian proxies Israel has undermined a major component of Tehran’s national-security doctrine.
“Iran has seen Lebanese Hezbollah reduced to almost nothing,” he said, adding it has greatly limited “what Hezbollah can do for Iran in the short term.”
Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group and political party, is the most powerful member of Iran’s axis of resistance and has fired thousands of rockets on Israel in the past year in solidarity with Palestinians.
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On October 1, Iran launched its biggest-ever missile attack against Israel in what was seen as retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah days earlier.
Alfoneh suggested Iran’s attack may have been fueled by concerns that Israel had targeted Hezbollah’s missile arsenals that “potentially can deter Israel from targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.”
“If those missiles are no longer there, things look very bleak for Iran,” Alfoneh said, adding Iran may have struck Israel in the hope that it could “divert Israeli attention away from Lebanon.”
The axis of resistance is key to Iran’s attempts to sustain military pressure on Israel and to deter its archenemy from directly attacking the Islamic republic.
Hezbollah has suffered major blowback in recent months. Israeli attacks have decimated its leadership, degraded its fighting capabilities, and compromised its communications.
Huthi Rebels Also Targeted
In Yemen, some 2,000 kilometers to the south, the Huthi rebels began launching advanced missiles and drones at Israel soon after the October 7 attack and targeted international maritime traffic off the coast of Yemen.
The actions landed the Huthis back on the U.S. terror list in January.
In late September, waves of Israeli air strikes hit Huthi targets in Yemen.
Elsewhere, Pro-Iranian militias and members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have also been hit hard by Israeli strikes in Iraq and Syria.
‘Down But Not Out’
But some experts are more skeptical of the overall effect of Israel’s bombardments against the axis of resistance.
“Hezbollah has definitely taken a hit, but the euphoria that swept Israel and parts of Washington appears premature and exaggerated,” said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “The axis may have been down but [is] far from out.”
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, said Hamas, Iran-backed militias in Syria, and to some extent Hezbollah has been weakened in terms of weaponry and human resources.
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But he said that did not apply to the axis of resistance overall.
In the case of Hezbollah, the group has significant manpower totaling around 100,000 fighters, Azizi said.
Hezbollah has also only sparingly used its most powerful ballistic missiles against Israel, Azizi added.
The Huthis, meanwhile, have already unleashed highly capable ballistic missiles and are the least affected by the Israeli strikes.
The biggest impact, Azizi said, has been on the axis of resistance’s command and coordination structure, largely due to Israel’s assassination of longtime Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, “who was in charge of coordinating all these groups,” including training and recruitment efforts.
Israel’s war in Gaza has killed over 41,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. Israel has said most of those killed were combatants, and estimates it has slain around 17,000 Hamas fighters, a figure rejected by the Palestinian group.
By Michael Scollon