The Guardian – If US accusations are proved unfounded, Khamenei has much to gain. But the threat of sanctions is perilous for the regime
Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has a serious crisis on his hands. President Barack Obama seems to believe that the “Iranian bomb plot” allegations provide a genuine case against the Tehran regime – otherwise he would not have taken the risk of having them scrutinised in a civilian court.
Obama’s confidence seems to stem from intelligence gathered inside Iran, which convinced the US government that the head of the revolutionary guards (IRGC) had co-ordinated the plot.
Despite Obama’s confidence, some experts are expressing serious doubts about whether the IRGC would be involved in such an uncharacteristically unsophisticated operation with a trail leading right to their doorstep. There are others who doubt whether the Mexican Zetas drug cartel would want to be involved in such a joint operation with the IRGC.
Should evidence from the US fail to convince the courts and the case is thrown out, Khamenei would have good reason to celebrate. This would boost his position at home, where he could say that his regime has been the innocent victim of a US intelligence plot, like Mohammad Mosaddegh was in 1953. Abroad he could say the precedent set by the case discredits all US opinion and reports with regards to Iran’s nuclear programme.
In the meantime, Obama is using the evidence at his disposal in an effort to bring Russia and China on board but the worst news for Khamenei is Obama’s talk of imposing severe sanctions. This could mean sanctions against Iran’s central bank – a very serious threat, which Khamenei can only ignore at his peril. New sanctions will mean less money at home to buy the loyalty of the IRGC and politicians, which could impact on the regime’s stability.
Gone are the days when true believers joined the revolution because of ideology. These days the revolution is being run by the IRGC whose loyalty Khamenei needs to buy through corruption and lucrative contracts, so that its officers can send their wives and kids on expensive shopping trips to Dubai.
The same goes for people outside the IRGC, such as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who took 100 people with him on his recent trip to the UN in New York, including his son, wife, daughter-in-law and her mother. While he was giving his anti-US tirades, his entourage were busy shopping.
Less money could also mean more corruption scandals surfacing as means of score settling between factions who will be fighting over less money. The recent corruption scandal surrounding more than $2.6bn (£1.6bn) of embezzled money from banks could be a sign of things to come.
Ahmadinejad or his right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei could be the biggest victim from the fallout. Both have been divisive figures and Khamenei will now have more reason to weaken them. He may even consider removing them, although the chances of this in the immediate future are not very high. Such quarrels within the regime are what dreams are made out of for its opponents as they can be fatal.
Although the regime has called the recent accusations “lies”, within the corridors of power serious questions are probably being asked about the IRGC. Questions such as: is it possible that the organisation has become so inefficient and lax that a rogue operative could undertake such an initiative? Is it possible that Khamenei was kept out of the picture? Or was Khamenei set up by those inside the regime who want to use the wrath of US to weaken him?
The worst case scenario for Khamenei would be if he had supervised or approved the plan himself and news about this reached Iran’s politicians. This would damage his standing, as well as that of his IRGC allies. It would make them look incompetent and careless. The affair could also impact on the position of IRGC Quds force commander Qasem Soleymani inside Iran and any potential political ambitions he may have.
However, there is also some good news for the regime. Regardless of whether the Iranian government is innocent or not, US reaction to the allegations will put an end to the internal fighting and discussions about whether Iran should seriously pursue dialogue with the US. Those against can use Obama’s reaction to justify their anti-US stance.
This would be a welcome development for Khamenei as this question has been yet another divisive issue within his regime. Most probably, recent events will push Khamenei towards taking a harder line at home. He already has enough problems with his own politicians, and now with the US. He will have even less patience for what the people of Iran want.