By: Josef Namin
In the recent 2024 Iranian presidential election, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory marks a potentially transformative moment for the nation. His election, amid the severe economic downturn and widespread social discontent, brings a glimmer of hope to many Iranians yearning for change. Pezeshkian’s campaign, which resonated with a broad spectrum of society, including ethnic and religious minorities, was built on promises of reform, particularly in the areas of internet freedom and freedom of speech.
Iran’s Political Landscape: A Power Struggle
Iran’s political system, characterized by its totalitarian nature, is heavily influenced by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful military organization that exerts significant control over the country’s economy, politics, and media. The IRGC’s dominance has created a system where true political power often lies not with the elected president or even the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but with the IRGC itself. This military mafia oversees vital economic sectors, including oil, banking, and major industries, effectively controlling the country’s financial lifeblood.
Pezeshkian’s election is significant not just for his moderate stance but also for his ability to communicate in multiple languages, including Turkish and Kurdish, fostering a sense of inclusivity among Iran’s diverse population. His vocal criticism of the regime’s discrimination against minorities, particularly Kurds and Sunni Muslims, has garnered him substantial support from these communities.
The Economic Crisis and the Path Forward
Iran’s economy is in dire straits, with high unemployment rates and increasing international isolation exacerbating the country’s woes. Pezeshkian’s presidency is seen by many as a last-ditch effort by the regime to stave off further decline and potential collapse. His history as the only member of parliament to openly protest against the regime’s killings during previous unrest underscores his commitment to justice and equality, albeit at significant personal risk.
However, Pezeshkian faces immense challenges. The IRGC’s grip on the nation’s resources means that any meaningful economic reform will require navigating the complex power dynamics within Iran’s political landscape. The IRGC’s influence extends to critical ministries, including intelligence, interior, defense, and foreign affairs, which are directly appointed by the Supreme Leader, effectively limiting the president’s power.
The IRGC’s Role and the Quest for Reform
The IRGC’s pervasive control is a significant barrier to Pezeshkian’s reform agenda. Historically, the IRGC has hampered efforts to liberalize the economy and society, driven by its interest in maintaining power and control. Former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s admissions about the IRGC’s overriding influence on foreign policy and negotiations with the West highlight the depth of the organization’s reach.
For Pezeshkian to succeed, he must secure access to the resources controlled by the IRGC, a formidable task given the organization’s reluctance to relinquish any control. The Iranian constitution stipulates that the IRGC should only function as a military entity, not as a political or economic powerhouse. Yet, the reality is starkly different, with the IRGC playing a central role in exporting terrorism, engaging in money laundering, and perpetuating conflicts in the region.
The Road Ahead
Pezeshkian’s presidency represents a critical juncture for Iran. His success depends not only on his ability to implement reforms but also on the willingness of the Iranian people to demand the IRGC’s retreat from political and economic spheres. The IRGC’s resistance to change is expected to be fierce, and any attempts to block Pezeshkian’s reforms will likely be orchestrated by the IRGC and conveyed through the Supreme Leader.
For Iran to prosper, it must push back against the IRGC’s overreach, returning the organization to its constitutional role. Only then can the nation hope to improve its economy, reduce unemployment, and enhance the quality of life for all Iranians. Pezeshkian’s presidency, supported by a populace eager for change, could pave the way for a more just and equitable Iran, breaking free from the shadow of military domination.
The new president faces a daunting task, but with the support of the Iranian people and a steadfast commitment to reform, there is hope for a brighter future. The international community will be watching closely, ready to support Iran’s journey towards greater freedom and prosperity.