The Iranian regime, a tyrannical fusion of religious fanaticism and militarized terror, has clung to power through sheer brutality despite repeated waves of unrest. The 2022 protests, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, represented a profound outcry for freedom, dignity, and justice. Yet, they ultimately faltered, allowing the Islamic Republic to regroup and intensify its repression. Understanding these failures is crucial—not as a postmortem, but as a blueprint for future resistance. The protesters’ shortcomings were not inevitable; they stemmed from strategic miscalculations, internal divisions, and a naive underestimation of the enemy. Below, I dissect the core reasons for this setback, drawing on the harsh realities of the regime’s survival tactics.
1. Ignorance of the Enemy’s True Nature
If you don’t know your enemy, defeat is assured. The protesters confronted a regime dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a cadre of mullahs—religious clerics who have weaponized faith to sanction atrocities worldwide. These clerics have a proven track record of justifying genocide, mass murder, and barbarism: from Buddhist-led ethnic cleansing in Myanmar to the IRGC’s orchestration of slaughter in Syria, Iraq, and within Iran itself, including the horrors perpetrated by ISIS-inspired extremists. The IRGC, designated a terrorist organization, excels in rape, torture, and extrajudicial killings, both domestically and abroad, with no regard for human rights or international norms. Naively, protesters took to the streets unarmed and expecting dialogue from these savages, who view dissent as heresy punishable by death. To dismantle such a regime, revolutionaries must prioritize seizing control of key strongholds: military depots housing weapons to arm the masses, and communication hubs like the internet ministry to counter propaganda and coordinate nationwide. Without this, protests remain vulnerable to the regime’s unyielding violence, as seen in the brutal crackdowns that killed hundreds and suppressed the movement.
2. Fragmented Factions with Conflicting Agendas
Unity is the lifeblood of revolution; division is its poison. The Iranian opposition was fractured into disparate groups, each pursuing narrow, self-serving visions that alienated potential allies. Monarchists, often behaving like a cult with totalitarian tendencies, demanded unquestioned loyalty to a restored monarchy, dismissing democracy and crushing dissenting voices. They acted with entitlement, believing they alone deserved to rule, while showing zero tolerance for other perspectives. Similarly, the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MKO), an exiled group with a history of brutality rivaling the regime’s, promoted its own authoritarian ideology, further toxicating the movement. These factions—monarchists, MKO, and even regime hardliners—share a common thread: a disdain for genuine democracy and human rights. Their presence repelled the vast majority of Iranians, especially ethnic minorities like Kurds and Baluchis, who saw no representation in these echo chambers. While some protesters chanted monarchist slogans, they were a vocal minority; the broader populace rejected these groups, leading to insufficient numbers on the streets. This infighting handed the regime a propaganda victory, allowing it to paint all dissenters as foreign-backed extremists.
3. Catastrophic Leadership Vacuum
A revolution without coherent leadership is a ship without a rudder—doomed to crash. Opposition figures failed spectacularly to unite, coordinate, or amplify a single, resonant voice for the protesters. Slogans endorsing monarchy alienated reformists and republicans, sowing discord. Reza Pahlavi, the monarchist figurehead, exacerbated this by refusing to rein in his supporters’ aggressive, rude, and intolerant behavior toward other groups. Known for their closed-minded vitriol, especially in exile communities, these followers turned potential coalitions into battlegrounds. Pahlavi should have condemned such divisiveness and distanced himself, but his inaction provided the IRGC with cover to label all protesters as “rioters” and unleash ruthless suppression. This leadership void not only discouraged broader participation, particularly from ethnic groups, but also prevented strategic escalation like organized strikes or targeted disruptions—tactics that could have paralyzed the regime.
4. Insufficient Mass Mobilization and Opportunistic Passivity
Regime change demands overwhelming numbers; half-hearted involvement guarantees failure. Far too many Iranians opted for the sidelines, staying home in supposed “smart” self-preservation while hoping for a miraculous outcome. This opportunism—expecting others to bear the risks—stemmed from a misguided belief that external powers like the US or Israel would swoop in and topple the regime for free. Such fantasies ignored the regime’s resilience amid sanctions and isolation. True change requires three pillars: (a) massive street presence to overwhelm security forces, (b) arming for self-defense against Basij and IRGC gunfire, turning passive marches into fortified resistance, and (c) a unified commitment to democracy, explicitly rejecting monarchy, dictatorship, or any authoritarian vestige. Without these, the protests dwindled, allowing the regime to regain control through attrition and terror.
A Call to Arms: Lessons for the Inevitable Next Uprising
The 2022 protests, like those before them, exposed the Islamic Republic’s fragility but ultimately reinforced its grip through the opposition’s own errors. Yet, history teaches that no tyranny lasts forever—especially one as economically bankrupt, regionally isolated, and morally bankrupt as this. For the next wave of resistance, which is not a matter of if but when, success hinges on unbreakable resolve and strategic evolution. It must prioritize mass participation from every corner of society, rejecting the cowardice of waiting for saviors. No reliance on outside powers; Iranians alone must reclaim their destiny, as foreign interventions have only prolonged suffering in neighboring lands.
Above all, the people must speak the only language their enemies understand: force. This regime, devoid of reasoning, logic, human rights, or democratic instincts, responds solely to power. Dialogue is futile with those who glorify murder as divine will. When you’re on the battlefield and your enemy is poised to kill you, you have only one option—fight back with equal ferocity, armed and unyielding. Arm yourselves, seize the tools of oppression, and forge a united front for a free, democratic Iran. The mullahs’ end is near, but it demands sacrifice, solidarity, and the will to win. Rise, and let this be the revolution that endures.