Will Iran drink from the ‘poisoned chalice’ once again?

Will Iran drink from the ‘poisoned chalice’ once again?
 Will Iran drink from the ‘poisoned chalice’ once again?
In a move that surprised some, the US has decided not to renew the exemptions it previously granted to eight nations to continue importing Iranian oil despite the sanctions imposed on Tehran’s oil sector. The decision indicates Washington’s seriousness in exerting the maximum pressure on Tehran to force the clerical establishment to comply with its 12 demands and force it to return to the negotiating table, although on very different terms than those agreed with former US President Barack Obama. The nuclear deal negotiated by Obama was described by his successor Donald Trump as the worst in US history.

 

 

Will Iran drink from the ‘poisoned chalice’ once again?
Will Iran drink from the ‘poisoned chalice’ once again?

 

For those who welcomed the US decision, as well as others closely watching the latest developments and forecasting their trajectory, it seems that the end of one chapter is quickly approaching and the Iranian regime is entering a historic phase, as it is now at a crossroads it has never experienced since the revolution in 1979.

The current impasse has led to conflicting statements among Iranian regime officials. Some have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if Iran is not allowed to export its oil, whilst others have attempted to send more conciliatory messages suggesting that Iran is ready for negotiations, even if they have an objective far less ambitious than the regime’s current wishes. Another group, meanwhile, wants to adopt a position halfway between these two extremes, arguing that, if US vessels wish to use the Strait of Hormuz, they should seek permission from the forces entitled to guard the waterway, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iran’s regime has prepared itself for this challenging new chapter and for a politically hotter-than-usual summer by recalling a number of its militias, which had been spread across Iraq and Syria, as well as other countries bordering Iraq and Iran. This move comes as Tehran fears that these militias may be targeted by US forces after the Trump administration classified the IRGC and a number of its affiliated militias as terrorist groups. Tehran is intent on protecting its long-term assets, which have been so costly for it to assemble over the past few decades.

 

Read more … 

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