Iran will win next Lebanese elections

“Hezbollah” will defeat Lebanon and the Lebanese and that is the only game it can master. Perhaps Lebanon is the place where Iran has achieved its most important successes in the region.

This is to be confirmed by the parliamentary elections in the country scheduled for May 15.

Lebanon is heading towards re-establishing once again Hezbollah’s hold on the Lebanese parliament,  as happened in 2018.

At that time, Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp, said that Iran had gained the majority in the Lebanese parliament.

The Lebanese legislative elections have clearly become an Iranian exercise aimed at using Lebanon as a bargaining chip for the “Islamic Republic”, nothing more and nothing less.

The US administration can no longer ignore this in any direct or indirect negotiations towards a US-Iranian deal that guarantees the lifting of sanctions on the “Islamic Republic.”

Iran is losing everywhere except in Lebanon, where all state institutions are at its disposal, starting with President Michel Aoun, who owes his arrival at Baabda Palace, along with his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, to Hezbollah and no one else.

Perhaps the most prominent place in which the Iranian project failed was Bahrain, which, thanks to direct Gulf support, was able to prevent a reenactment of Lebanon’s “Hezbollah” experience. But Iraq remains, however, the crown jewel of the Iranian expansionist and sectarian project.

Nineteen years after the administration of George W Bush handed over Iraq on a silver platter to the “Islamic Republic,” it turns out that Tehran has no magic solution in Iraq and that Iraq is still Iraq while Iran is still Iran.

There is still a majority in Iraq that rejects subordination to Iran. The best expression of this rejection remains the ongoing situation in the country since the parliamentary elections of last October.

These elections inflicted a defeat on the pro-Iran parties. Today, the most that the “Islamic Republic” can achieve, after losing Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the “Quds Force” and the maestro of Iran’s lethal orchestra in Iraq, is to obstruct the formation of a new Iraqi government and the election of a new president.

In Syria, Iran has failed, at least so far, to  take advantage of Russia’s preoccupation with the Ukrainian war.

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