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Israel arrests second Russian-Israeli in Iran-backed assassination plot

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Israel arrests second Russian-Israeli in Iran-backed assassination plot

Israeli security services have arrested a Russian-Israeli citizen for being part of an Iran-backed assassination plot targeting a senior scientist for $100,000, the second in just three days.

It is the third such arrest in a matter of weeks. Vladimir Varehovskim 35, from Petah Tikva in central Israel, is alleged to have agreed to carry out the assassination and now faces a court hearing on Wednesday, October 16.

In a joint operation, Shin Bet and Israel Police uncovered “an Iranian intelligence network working to recruit and activate citizens in Israel,” according to a police statement.

“Some of the tasks performed were documented by Vladimir and payment was received for their performance,” a statement from Israel Police said. “The contact between him and the Iranian officials took place in the English language and as part of it he was asked to purchase a dedicated phone.”

After having done a series of smaller operations for Iran such as gathering information about an Israeli entity, hanging banners and spraying graffiti, “Vladimir later agreed to carry out a mission to eliminate an Israeli scientist for the sum of $100,000”, Israel Police said.

Ronen Solomon, an Israeli intelligence and defense expert, told Iran International: “The Iranians are learning from Western intelligence methods which had been taken from Israeli operations in order to target Israeli officials. Iran is also learning from the Russians.”

He said recruitment is being done by a cyber program, the latest suspect being recruited by Facebook. Recent recruits have also been recruited through Telegram.

“The Iranians see Russians as the weak link in Israeli society,” he said, hundreds of thousands having used Israel’s right of return laws for Jews since the fall of the Soviet Union.

“This is the second case in a row, so it could be the same handler in Iran,” he added.

Many of the roughly 1.5 million Russians in Israel are atheist and do not integrate as well into Israeli society as others, preferring to live in areas with large numbers of fellow Russian speakers.

Since the war with Ukraine making travel for Russians increasingly hard, Israel absorbed many more seeking a second passport.

It follows the arrest on Monday of Vladislav Victorson, 30, on charges of orchestrating an assassination plot on behalf of Iran. The Russian, living in the Tel Aviv suburb of Ramat Gan, had been in contact through social networks with a person named “Mari Hossi”, speaking in Hebrew.

Victorson was also accused of agreeing to assassinate an Israeli citizen and throw a grenade at his home, the statement from Israel Police saying he had worked to obtain weapons, including a sniper rifle, pistols and grenades.

He was also accused of having carried out tasks including burying money and burning vehicles in Yarkon Park in Tel Aviv. In addition, he was asked to sabotage communication infrastructure and ATMs as well as set fire to forests.

He is alleged to have recruited two other citizens, including his partner, Anna Bernstein, just 18 years old, who took part in several tasks in the operation.

Israel Police said he was also accused of locating street gangs in order to recruit them to perform additional tasks and photograph demonstrators during protests.

Asher Ben Artzi, the former head of Israel’s Interpol, warned: “The Iranian intelligence is quite sophisticated. They are very active.”

A closed community, he said Israel’s Russians are vulnerable to recruitment. “We can assume that as many of them have a tough life here, they could be more angry at the state of Israel. If you offer such people a lot of money, they don’t resist such a temptation,” he told Iran International.

“The bottom line is that Iranian intelligence is very dangerous for us,” he added as cases of this kind become ever more frequent.

Iran-backed plots recruiting date back more than a decade and have seen Iran hiring a wide spectrum of society, including an orthodox Jew from the religious suburb of Jerusalem, Beit Shemesh, arrested in July. In 2022, a network of Israeli women was uncovered as having been recruited by Iran.

Last month, Israel revealed they foiled an Iranian plot to assassinate top leaders including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the head of Shin Bet and the country’s defence minister.

Moti Maman, a 73-year-old Israeli businessman from the city of Ashkelon, was accused of twice smuggling himself into Iran via Turkey to meet with intelligence officials directing the plots from Tehran.

Iran’s FM seeks regional backing against Israel in Middle East tour

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Iran’s FM seeks regional backing against Israel in Middle East tour

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has departed for Jordan, advancing his Middle East tour to rally support among regional countries as Tehran braces for a promised Israeli retaliatory strike.

The overarching message from his previous meetings, Araghchi has reaffirmed Iran’s position that it “does not want war” but is “fully prepared for a war situation.”

Following visits to Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, and Oman, Iran’s top diplomat will continue to Jordan, Egypt, and Turkey.

While Iran has actively tried to engage in regional diplomacy to counter Israel’s actions and mitigate US influence, one former Iranian diplomat says the state’s strategy is bound to fail.

In an interview with the Iranian news site Khabar Online, Iran’s former ambassador to Jordan, Nosratollah Tajik, argued that the Islamic Republic cannot realistically expect neighboring countries to fully align with its stance against Israel.

Tajik says that Tehran lacks a comprehensive approach that aligns with the priorities of neighboring states, stating that many – particularly Saudi Arabia – are focused on economic stability and are unlikely to adopt an anti-Israel stance just to support Iran’s position.

On October 1, Tehran launched more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, declaring the strike a response to the recent killings of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah and Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) General Abbas Nilforoushan in Lebanon.

Since Israel’s vow to retaliate, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly assured the Biden administration that any potential strike would target military assets rather than Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities. Prior to that, a top US State Department official told CNN that Israel has given no assurances it won’t target Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“Some think the US has turned a blind eye to Israel’s actions! Not at all. The US, with full awareness, has allowed Israel a free hand to undermine Iran’s position in the region, enabling any crimes in Gaza and Lebanon,” Tajik further argued in the interview. Currently residing in the UK, Tajik’s diplomatic career faced complications following his 2006 arrest there on alleged arms trafficking charges—a case that garnered substantial media attention.

Amid his continuing Middle East tour, Iran’s foreign minister also announced that indirect talks with the United States would not continue, citing the worsening Middle East crisis as a barrier to further negotiations.

“We do not see a basis for these talks until the current crisis is resolved. Afterward, we will decide whether to resume negotiations and in what form they should continue,” Araghchi said in Oman, which had previously facilitated indirect talks with the US.

Araghchi also held talks with a senior official from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement.

The specifics of his discussions with the Houthi official were not disclosed. However, Yemen’s Houthis, along with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, form part of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” a coalition of militant groups aligned against Israel.

How Much Has Hamas’s October 7 Attack Damaged Iran And Its Anti-Israel Alliance?

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How Much Has Hamas’s October 7 Attack Damaged Iran And Its Anti-Israel Alliance?

Iran has spent decades assembling its “axis of resistance,” a loose network of armed proxies and allies against Israel.

But on October 7, Hamas — the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group that is a key member of Iran’s axis — launched a deadly cross-border assault on Israel, killing nearly 1,200 Israelis and taking a further 251 hostages.

One year on, how much has Israel weakened key members of the axis and how near is all-out war with Iran?

‘Hezbollah Reduced To Almost Nothing’

Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said that by taking on Iranian proxies Israel has undermined a major component of Tehran’s national-security doctrine.

“Iran has seen Lebanese Hezbollah reduced to almost nothing,” he said, adding it has greatly limited “what Hezbollah can do for Iran in the short term.”

Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group and political party, is the most powerful member of Iran’s axis of resistance and has fired thousands of rockets on Israel in the past year in solidarity with Palestinians.

Relatives and other mourners of Israeli victims attend a ceremony at the Nova memorial near Kibbutz Reim in southern Israel on the first anniversary of the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas.

Israel Marks Anniversary Of Hamas Attack As War Rages On In Lebanon, Gaza

On October 1, Iran launched its biggest-ever missile attack against Israel in what was seen as retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah days earlier.

Alfoneh suggested Iran’s attack may have been fueled by concerns that Israel had targeted Hezbollah’s missile arsenals that “potentially can deter Israel from targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.”

“If those missiles are no longer there, things look very bleak for Iran,” Alfoneh said, adding Iran may have struck Israel in the hope that it could “divert Israeli attention away from Lebanon.”

The axis of resistance is key to Iran’s attempts to sustain military pressure on Israel and to deter its archenemy from directly attacking the Islamic republic.

Hezbollah has suffered major blowback in recent months. Israeli attacks have decimated its leadership, degraded its fighting capabilities, and compromised its communications.

Huthi Rebels Also Targeted

In Yemen, some 2,000 kilometers to the south, the Huthi rebels began launching advanced missiles and drones at Israel soon after the October 7 attack and targeted international maritime traffic off the coast of Yemen.

The actions landed the Huthis back on the U.S. terror list in January.

In late September, waves of Israeli air strikes hit Huthi targets in Yemen.

Elsewhere, Pro-Iranian militias and members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have also been hit hard by Israeli strikes in Iraq and Syria.

Iranians burn a painted Israeli flag during a gathering in Tehran to support Iran's October 1 attack on Israel.
Iranians burn a painted Israeli flag during a gathering in Tehran to support Iran’s October 1 attack on Israel.

‘Down But Not Out’

But some experts are more skeptical of the overall effect of Israel’s bombardments against the axis of resistance.

“Hezbollah has definitely taken a hit, but the euphoria that swept Israel and parts of Washington appears premature and exaggerated,” said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “The axis may have been down but [is] far from out.”

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, said Hamas, Iran-backed militias in Syria, and to some extent Hezbollah has been weakened in terms of weaponry and human resources.

Demonstrators protest in Jerusalem during a rally demanding the release of Israelis taken hostage by Hamas on October 7. (file photo)

Interview: Israel ‘Very Polarized’ One Year After October 7 Attack

But he said that did not apply to the axis of resistance overall.

In the case of Hezbollah, the group has significant manpower totaling around 100,000 fighters, Azizi said.

Hezbollah has also only sparingly used its most powerful ballistic missiles against Israel, Azizi added.

The Huthis, meanwhile, have already unleashed highly capable ballistic missiles and are the least affected by the Israeli strikes.

The biggest impact, Azizi said, has been on the axis of resistance’s command and coordination structure, largely due to Israel’s assassination of longtime Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, “who was in charge of coordinating all these groups,” including training and recruitment efforts.

Israel’s war in Gaza has killed over 41,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. Israel has said most of those killed were combatants, and estimates it has slain around 17,000 Hamas fighters, a figure rejected by the Palestinian group.

By Michael Scollon

Israeli airstrikes in Syria target Iranian-linked sites

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Israeli airstrikes in Syria target Iranian-linked sites

Israeli airstrikes hit multiple locations in western Syria early on Thursday, targeting sites associated with Iranian interests, according to Syrian media and regional reports.

Among the targets was a car manufacturing plant in the industrial town of Hisyah, 30 kilometers south of Homs, where Israeli forces caused material damage, as reported by Syria’s state news agency, SANA.

“At around 1:00 am (2200 GMT Wednesday), the Israeli enemy launched an air attack… targeting a car assembly factory in the industrial area of Hisyah in Homs province” and a military position in Hama, state news agency SANA said, citing a military source.

This comes a day after an Israeli airstrike near the Iranian embassy in Damascus reportedly killed Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh, the deputy commander of Iran’s Quds Force.

The strike, which occurred in the Mezzah district of Damascus, left seven dead and 11 others injured, according to Syrian state media. The attack also caused damage to nearby buildings, leading to widespread destruction in the area.

In addition to the strike on Hisyah, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an independent monitoring group, confirmed that Israeli forces also targeted the southern outskirts of Hama. Meanwhile, Al Arabiya reported that Israeli airstrikes also hit the Al-Kiswah area, southwest of Damascus, a known hub for Iranian military activity in Syria. According to these reports, the Al-Kiswah attack specifically targeted a base associated with a group linked to Iran.

The Hisyah plant, identified as the Iranian car manufacturer Saipa factory, which has ties to Iranian operations, was struck for the second time in less than a week. The factory’s Iranian CEO, Ahmad Karegar, stated that the facility had been designated an “international relief headquarters” and claimed that the land the factory occupies belongs to Iran. He added that despite the Israeli strikes, the production line of the factory remained intact.

However, analysts have speculated that the site may serve a dual purpose, functioning not only as a car manufacturing plant but also as a hidden arms depot for Iran and Hezbollah. The size of the factory, spanning 30 hectares, and the precision of the Israeli strikes have fueled suspicions that it may be used to store military equipment and weaponry, though Israel has not publicly claimed responsibility for these attacks.

These strikes come amid heightened tensions in the region following Iran’s missile attack on Israel. Iran has been increasingly active in Syria, where it supports Hezbollah and other militias operating in the country. Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Iranian-linked sites in Syria in recent years, aiming to prevent Tehran from establishing a strong military foothold near its borders.

Iran reportedly warns Arab states against Israeli use of airspace for attacks

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Iran reportedly warns Arab states against Israeli use of airspace for attacks

Tehran warned Persian Gulf Arab states it would be “unacceptable” to allow use of their airspace or bases against Iran, threatening a response if they do, Reuters reported a senior Iranian official saying Wednesday.

The comments come amid growing concern over possible Israeli retaliation for last week’s Iranian missile attack, as Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi headed to Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states for talks on Wednesday.

They followed discussions between Iran and Arab capitals last week on the sidelines of an Asia conference in Qatar, when Persian Gulf states sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality in any conflict between Tehran and Israel.

“Iran made it clear that any action by a Persian Gulf country against Tehran, whether through the use of airspace or military bases, will be regarded by Tehran as an action taken by the entire group, and Tehran will respond accordingly,” the senior Iranian official told Reuters.

“The message emphasized the need for regional unity against Israel and the importance of securing stability,” he said.

“It also made clear that any assistance to Israel, such as allowing the use of a regional country’s airspace for actions against Iran, is unacceptable.”

The role of Persian Gulf Arab states will become more significant if an Israeli attack leads to US military involvement, as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all host US military facilities or troops.

US Navy vessels in the Persian Gulf Hormuz Strait. File photo
US Navy vessels in the Persian Gulf Hormuz Strait. File photo

Meanwhile Israel’s Channel 12 reported on Tuesday that the United States and Arab states have launched covert talks with Iran for a comprehensive ceasefire aimed at calming all war fronts at once.

The report said Israel isn’t currently involved in the initiative but added that senior Israeli officials have been informed about it.

The network noted that it isn’t clear how the efforts would affect Gaza, which is more complex than the rest of the fronts due to Israel’s desire to continue fighting even after a potential hostage deal and Hamas’s demand for an Israeli withdrawal in any deal.

One of the senior Israeli officials was quoted by Channel 12 as saying: “We are currently in a position of power, a ceasefire will be on our terms, including a [Hezbollah] withdrawal beyond the Litani [River] and the dismantling of all military Hezbollah sites in areas near the border.”

US President Joe Biden is expected to hold a telephone call on Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that will include discussion of any plans to strike Iran, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke with Reuters.

The official said Iran did not discuss the issue of Persian Gulf Arab oil producers raising output if Iranian production was disrupted during any escalation.

The likelihood of Israel targeting Iran’s oil sector has been widely discussed since Jerusalem made its intention of retaliation clear. However, Israel can target Iran’s export capacity or the domestic energy sector by targeting refineries.

Biden has said he would think about alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields if he were in Israel’s shoes. Any such attack would drive up global oil prices just weeks before the US presidential election that can hurt Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which is de-facto led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare oil capacity to make up any loss of Iranian supply if an Israeli retaliation knocks out some of the country’s facilities.

Much of OPEC’s spare capacity is in the Persian Gulf region. Iran has not threatened to attack the oil facilities of its Arab neighbors but has previously warned that if “Israel supporters” intervene directly their interests in the region would be targeted.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has had a political rapprochement with Tehran since 2023, which has helped ease regional tensions, but relations remain difficult.

Saudi Arabia has been wary of an Iranian strike on its oil facilities since a 2019 attack on its key refinery at Abqaiq briefly shut down more than 5% of global oil supply. Iran denied involvement.

A Western diplomat in the Persian Gulf told Reuters that during Thursday’s meeting in Doha, Iran made clear that Tehran had called for regional unity in the face of an Israeli attack and that it considered neutrality of Gulf states a bare minimum.

The diplomat said Iran had made clear that Tehran would keep a close eye on how each Persian Gulf country responded in the case of an Israeli attack, and also how US bases housed in their countries were used.

Israeli troops plant flag over wrecked ‘Iran garden’ in South Lebanon

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Israeli troops plant flag over wrecked ‘Iran garden’ in South Lebanon

Israeli troops invading South Lebanon planted their flag over a hilltop “Iran Garden” sponsored by the Islamic Republic which once hosted likenesses of top Iranian luminaries and a model of Jerusalem’s Dome of the Rock.

The apparent takeover of the heights in Maroun al-Ras village, relayed in video and pictures on social media on Tuesday, represents a symbolic setback for Iran as the Hezbollah group it backs has taken heavy blows in recent weeks.

The images show demolished structures on the terraced hillside including the ruins of the mock-up Islamic holy place which had previously been emblazoned with the “God is Great” Arabic insignia on Iran’s flag.

The site also hosted children’s play areas and family friendly observation decks and picnic spots. It was inaugurated by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a visit to the area in 2010.

Billboards of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had decorated the site along with a larger than life cut-out figure of slain senior Iranian general Qassem Soleimani with a finger pointing toward Israel.

None appeared to be intact based on the social media imagery.

Israel has repeatedly killed top Hezbollah leaders in air strikes after maiming and killing hundreds of its rank and file members in explosions targeting their pagers and walkie talkies.

Over 1,000 Lebanese have been killed since Israel stepped up its attacks last month – a death toll that is already higher than that of a 34-day war the foes last fought in 2006.

Iran’s IRGC denies reports of Israeli attack on Isfahan air base

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Iran’s IRGC denies reports of Israeli attack on Isfahan air base

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard and state media have denied reports that an air base in the central province of Isfahan, home to several Iranian military and nuclear facilities, was targeted by Israel overnight.

Reports of explosions in Isfahan in the early hours of Tuesday alarmed residents, with social media users speculating that Israel, amid heightened tensions, may have launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s Saheb al-Zaman Headquarters in Isfahan issued a statement attributing the explosion heard at dawn on Tuesday to a defense system test conducted in the area.

“The sound of the explosion heard at midnight was due to seeing a luminous object and the test activity of the defense system,” the Public Relations Department of the Saheb al-Zaman Headquarters said in a statement on Tuesday.

An earlier statement from the Khatam al-Anbiya Air Defense Base similarily dismissed reports of an explosion, stating that the sounds heard in the city were due to the “testing of a new defense system.”

Explosions have previously stirred concern in Isfahan; in mid-August, similar reports surfaced but were ultimately attributed to “training activities” by local authorities.

Isfahan, housing key nuclear facilities including the Natanz uranium enrichment complex, is a strategic site for Tehran and has been the target of suspected Israeli sabotage operations in the past.

In April, Israel reportedly destroyed part of an S-300 long-range air defense system in the city in response to Iran’s earlier missile and drone barrage against Israel. The incident was viewed as part of an ongoing shadow war between the two nations, with Isfahan’s military significance making it a focal point of tensions.

Following a series of highly effective Israeli operations against Iran’s primary proxy, Hezbollah—which culminated in the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah—the Islamic Republic retaliated with a massive missile barrage against Israel on October 1. This marked the second Iranian missile strike since April.

Since then, anticipation has grown around an imminent Israeli response, with military analysts debating the scale and targets of potential retaliation.

Although strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities remain a possibility despite the challenges involved, many experts argue that Israel is more likely to focus on crippling critical energy, economic, and military infrastructure for a broader strategic impact.

Who Is Hashem Safieddine, The Senior Hezbollah Leader?

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Who Is Hashem Safieddine, The Senior Hezbollah Leader?

Hashem Safieddine is a cousin and potential successor to Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader assassinated by Israel.

Safieddine, a senior figure inside Hezbollah, the armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, was reportedly targeted by Israeli air strikes in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, late on October 3. It was not clear if he had been killed.

A Shi’ite cleric with close ties to Iran, Safieddine joined Hezbollah soon after the group was formed in the 1980s.

Safieddine is widely tipped to succeed Nasrallah, the charismatic and longtime leader of the organization who was killed in Israeli air strikes in Beirut on September 27.

Safieddine heads Hezbollah’s executive branch, which oversees the group’s political affairs. He is also a member of the decision-making Shura Council as well as the Jihad Council, which runs the group’s military operations.

The United States designated Safieddine a terrorist in 2017. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by Washington, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (right) welcomes Hassan Nasrallah (left) at his office in Tehran in 2000.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (right) welcomes Hassan Nasrallah (left) at his office in Tehran in 2000.

The bearded and bespectacled Safieddine wears a black turban, like Nasrallah, which denotes descent from Prophet Muhammad.

“As Nasrallah’s cousin and longtime presumed successor, he would likely be able to unify Hezbollah ranks around him,” said Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“But he lacks Nasrallah’s charisma, and he inherits an organization that is a shadow of its former self,” added Levitt, the author of Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon’s Party of God.

Israel’s killing of Nasrallah was the biggest blow to Hezbollah in its 42-year history. The Shi’ite organization has suffered major setbacks in recent months. Israel has assassinated many members of Hezbollah’s leadership, neutralized a significant part of its military arsenal, and disrupted its communications.

With Iran's help, Hassan Nasrallah turned Hezbollah into a powerful political and military entity in Lebanon and a major regional player.

In his over 30 years in charge of Hezbollah, Nasrallah forged a close relationship with Shi’a-majority Iran, Hezbollah’s key backer. With significant financial and political assistance from Tehran, Nasrallah built Hezbollah into a powerful political and military entity in Lebanon and a major player in the region.

Safieddine, born in southern Lebanon, also has close ties to the Islamic republic. He studied in the holy Shi’ite city of Qom, in central Iran. Safieddine’s brother, meanwhile, is Hezbollah’s representative to Iran.

Safieddine’s son is married to the daughter of Qassem Soleimani, the top Iranian commander who was assassinated in a U.S. air strike in Iraq in 2020.

Why Has Israel Launched A Ground Invasion Of Lebanon?

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Why Has Israel Launched A Ground Invasion Of Lebanon?

Israel has invaded southern Lebanon, in what it has called a “limited, localized, and targeted” ground operation against Hezbollah.

Israeli forces on October 1 crossed the border for the first time since the 34-day Israeli-Hezbollah war in 2006.

Hezbollah is both an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.

What Is Israel’s Goal?

The Israeli military has said its aim is to destroy Hezbollah targets along the border. One army division, which usually numbers more than 10,000 soldiers, is involved, it said.

Israel last month made the return of some 60,000 residents of northern Israel displaced by Hezbollah attacks a key war aim. Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged constant cross-border strikes since Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip in October 2023.

Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy, said Israel is trying to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the border, including tunnels and observations posts.

“In that sense it is ‘limited,’ as the goal is not to defeat Hezbollah, which would require a much broader invasion of most of Lebanon,” he said.

But it is unclear if Israel’s invasion will be limited in scope.

U.S. officials have noted that Israel initially billed its 1982 invasion of southern Lebanon a “limited” attack, which turned into an 18-year occupation.

Israel has also ordered communities in southern Lebanon to evacuate north of the Awali River, some 60 kilometers from the border, raising concerns of a larger offensive.

Horowitz said Israel risks being “pulled in even deeper” if it tries to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. But he said Israeli leaders likely want to avoid being dragged into a protracted war.

“At the same time, if Israeli troops pull back, Hezbollah is likely to come back and launch new attacks against Israel, which would be embarrassing for the Israeli government,” he said.

Can Hezbollah Put Up A Fight?

Hezbollah has suffered major setbacks in recent months. Israel has assassinated most of its leadership, neutralized a significant part of its military arsenal, and disrupted its communications.

While Hezbollah has been weakened, experts said the group should not be written off, given its considerable manpower and military arsenal.

Analysts said Hezbollah fighters have experience in guerrilla warfare and are likely more familiar with the terrain.

Israel thinks Hezbollah is “in a state of chaos, and there’s a gap in the command-and-control system,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “We can expect initial advances and successes by Israel.”

But Hezbollah, he said, has a “considerable advantage” in ground fighting because of the group’s experience in guerilla warfare and familiarity with local terrain.

Since it was formed in the early 1980s, Hezbollah has grown to become the dominant military power in Lebanon, effectively sidelining the country’s conventional army.

Azizi said the Lebanese Army is “comparatively weak” compared to Hezbollah, which is estimated to have some 40,000 fighters.

The army has only a limited presence in southern Lebanon, where a UN peacekeeping force is deployed. With Hezbollah controlling much of the region, the Lebanese Army is unlikely to play a major role in ground combat with Israeli forces.

The Lebanese army “simply isn’t built to defend Lebanon from the [Israeli Defense Forces] and, there is probably a lot of international pressure to move it out of the way,” said Horowitz.

Will Iran Get Involved?

Iran, Hezbollah’s key ally, has been under pressure to respond after Israel’s killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of the organization, in air strikes in Beirut on September 27. Israel’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon is only likely to heap more pressure on Tehran.

But experts said Tehran is unlikely to launch a direct military strike on Israel, a move that could provoke all-out war with its archenemy.

When another Iranian ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was at risk of being toppled during that country’s civil war, Iran intervened to keep him in power.

But Azizi said Iran is unlikely to deploy proxy forces as well as its own military advisers — as it did in Syria — in Lebanon.

The Lebanese government has also blocked Iranian planes from entering the country’s airspace after threats from Israel.

Azizi argued that Iran’s only viable option is to help other members of its so-called axis of resistance — Tehran’s loose network of proxies and allies – to “mobilize and increase their attacks against Israel.”

How did Israeli intelligence manage to infiltrate Hezbollah and assassinate Nasrallah?

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How did Israeli intelligence manage to infiltrate Hezbollah and assassinate Nasrallah?
The qualitative targets that Israel hit in its war against the Lebanese Hezbollah, including the destruction of weapons sites, the booby-trapping of its wireless communications devices, and the assassination of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, raised urgent questions about the Hebrew state’s ability to penetrate its archenemy. How did it manage to do so and where are the gaps in the ranks of the Shiite Hezbollah?

Lebanon’s Hezbollah faces a huge challenge after the killing of Hassan Nasrallah: plugging the gaps in its ranks that allowed its arch-enemy Israel to destroy weapons sites, booby-trapped its radio communications equipment and assassinate its veteran secretary-general, whose whereabouts had been a closely guarded secret for years.

Nasrallah’s killing at the headquarters on Friday came just a week after Israel detonated hundreds of booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies. Israel is widely believed to have carried out the bombings but has neither confirmed nor denied involvement.

His killing was the culmination of a rapid series of strikes that assassinated half of Hezbollah’s leadership council and destroyed its top military leadership.

Reuters reported that in the days before and hours after Nasrallah’s killing, it spoke to more than a dozen sources in Lebanon, Israel, Iran and Syria who provided details of the damage Israel inflicted on the powerful Shiite paramilitary group, including its supply lines and command structure.

All requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

An informed source told Israel less than 24 hours before the strike that the Hebrew state had spent 20 years focusing intelligence efforts on Hezbollah and could target Nasrallah whenever it wanted, even if he was at the group’s headquarters.

The source described the intelligence information as “excellent,” without providing details.

Two Israeli officials told Reuters that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle of ministers approved the attack on Wednesday. The strike occurred while Netanyahu was in New York to address the United Nations General Assembly.

Since the 2006 war, Nasrallah has avoided public appearances and has been cautious for a long time, his movements have been limited and the circle of people he meets is very small, according to a source familiar with Nasrallah’s security arrangements. The source added that the assassination indicates that his group has been infiltrated by spies working for Israel.

A well-informed security source said a week ago that the Shiite leader had been more cautious than usual since the pager bombings on September 17, fearing that Israel might try to kill him. The source cited his absence from a leader’s funeral and his pre-recording of a speech that had been broadcast a few days earlier as evidence.

Hezbollah’s media office did not respond to a request for comment for this story. U.S. President Joe Biden on Saturday called Nasrallah’s killing a “just measure” for his many victims and said the United States fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself against Iranian-backed groups.

Israel says it targeted Nasrallah by dropping bombs on an underground headquarters under a residential building in southern Beirut.

“This is a huge blow and an intelligence failure for Hezbollah,” said Magnus Ranstorp, a veteran Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defence University. “They knew he was having a meeting. He was meeting with other leaders and they attacked him immediately.”

In addition to Nasrallah, the Israeli military says it has eliminated eight of Hezbollah’s nine top military leaders this year, most of them in the past week. They led units ranging from the rocket division to the group’s elite Radwan force.

In August, an Israeli drone struck weapons hidden in commercial trailers in Syria, the source said. Last week, the Israeli military said its warplanes struck unspecified infrastructure used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah on the Syrian-Lebanese border.

Joseph Votel, a former general who led U.S. forces in the Middle East, said Israel and its allies could easily intercept any missiles Iran sends overland to Hezbollah now. “Frankly, that may be a risk they’re willing to take,” he said.

Source: Reuters

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