Rob Malley, US special envoy for Iran, is under FBI investigation for mishandling classified information, though the State Department believes no serious misconduct occurred, according to a new Wall Street Journal report.
Malley was placed on unpaid leave and had his security clearance suspended in April 2023. Iran International first reported the incident in June, but the State Department has since blocked all efforts to gather further information on Malley’s case.
Two influential congressmen suggested in May that Malley lost his security clearance because he had transferred classified documents to his personal email and cell phone, and the documents were then stolen by a hostile cyber actor.
Citing people familiar with the matter, the report said investigators also discovered evidence that “Malley had potentially moved classified material, including meeting notes, to a personal account.”
The probe into Malley’s conduct resulted in a “tense meeting between senior Federal Bureau of Investigation and State Department officials,” WSJ reported. “The FBI viewed his work as sloppy, and the implications serious, while the State Department officials defended him.”
The State Department believed that the allegations against Malley “didn’t reflect serious misconduct,” a senior State Department official told the department’s inspector general, according to WSJ.
However, the State Department itself is accused of violating regulations by not reporting allegations against Malley to the department’s watchdog, an internal probe obtained by Iran International revealed earlier this week.
The state department has yet to release details of these allegations which led to the revocation of Malley’s security clearance, and effectively ended his mandate.
The report, initiated by the State Department’s Inspector General months ago, highlights procedural lapses that likely allowed Malley to engage in activities beyond his authorized scope of work even after the suspension of his role.
Key issues highlighted in the report are the delay in notifying Malley of his clearance suspension and the department’s failure to inform other staff that Malley was no longer permitted to access classified materials.
‘Malley showed his hand too soon’
Appointed by President Biden in early 2021, Malley was tasked with leading the administration’s efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran which had been abandoned by Donald Trump in 2018.
In the course of talks with Tehran on the revival of the JCPOA, Malley proposed removing the toughest portion of the US sanctions that related to Iran’s nuclear program. However, his direct approach “worried some members of his 10-person negotiating team, who believed he was showing his hand too soon,” the WSJ report said Sunday.
“The basic criticism was about how much he unveiled,” said Enrique Mora, the EU’s deputy foreign policy chief and top negotiator at the time.
When hardliner Ebrahim Raisi was elected as Iran’s new president in 2021, nuclear talks broke off without a deal. Later in November that year, the Iranian negotiators led by Ali Bagheri-Kani met with US counterparts saying they wanted to restart the negotiations from scratch. At the time, the WSJ said, “Malley advocated for staying, believing that the price for persuading Tehran to return to talks later would prove too costly.”
However, Malley’s decision to stay fractured the US negotiating team, resulting in the resignations of Malley’s deputy, Richard Nephew, and other team member Ariane Tabatabai.
“The US showed that it was quite desperate to get a deal,” the WSJ said citing a European negotiator. “The Iranians knew they could just string it out.”
Iran showcased a new ballistic missile named Jihad, developed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, during a military parade in Tehran on Saturday.
The Jihad missile system was officially unveiled for the first time on Saturday, introducing a new launch platform for liquid-fueled missiles, according to Iranian government media and IRGC sources.
According to the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim website, it is a ballistic missile with a range of 1,000 kilometers, featuring a dual-missile launcher that distinguishes it from other Iranian liquid-fueled missiles.
Tasnim stated, “A glance at the Jihad missile reveals that it is an optimized version of the Qiam missile, whose range was previously increased from 800 kilometers to 1,000 kilometers, and its warhead became guided.”
First generation of Iran’s Qiam missile
The Qiam missile, Iran’s first liquid-fueled missile without fins, was introduced in 2010 with an initial range of 800 kilometers. Its design modification for fin removal allowed for launch from various missile silos. Subsequent enhancements included the replacement of the standard triple-cone warhead with a detachable, guided variant, improving accuracy to within 50 meters, according to Tasnim.
In October 2018, images from an operation revealed the Qiam missile with newly added small fins to enhance its flight profile. By 2021, the Ministry of Defense reported further advancements in the Qiam missile, achieving a range of 1,000 kilometers and marking the emergence of what the IRGC says is a new generation.
According to Tasnim, the Jihad missile is equipped with a warhead weighing approximately 600 kilograms and travels at speeds exceeding eight times the speed of sound. It employs a different launch platform, enabling the simultaneous launch of two missiles, thus enhancing operational efficiency despite the longer preparation time typically associated with liquid-fueled missiles.
Although the Islamic Republic has made continuous advancements in its ballistic missile program, it is not possible to independently verify claims of developing advanced weapons. Around 350 missiles and drones launched against Israel in April, 99% were intercepted by Israeli air defenses and allied warplanes.
Following the introduction of the Kheibar-Shekan and Martyr Haj Qasem missiles, Tasnim reported that a new generation of Iranian ballistic missile launch platforms has also become operational. This platform, used in the Fattah missile, is equipped with the DRU (Precise Navigation System), providing highly accurate positioning data. “This enables rapid firing immediately after deployment, along with swift closure and exit capabilities,” the report added.
Iran’s first hypersonic ballistic missile Fattah
Iran’s missile program has generated ongoing concerns among Western nations, particularly the United States and its allies, as Iran invests heavily in developing various ballistic and cruise missiles. The advancements in missile technology have raised alarms about potential threats to regional stability, especially regarding Iran’s backing of non-state actors and militant groups.
The potential development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) has prompted calls for tighter controls over Iran’s missile program.
In response to the tensions, the United States and its allies have imposed sanctions targeting Iran’s missile development, aiming to restrict access to materials and technologies that could enhance missile capabilities.
Mojtaba Khamenei, a cleric and the son of Iran’s Supreme Leader, has surprised many in Iran by announcing the suspension of his religious lectures, describing the decision as “either permanent or temporary.”
The announcement came during his online lecture on Sunday, marking the end of his 13-year tenure as a religious lecturer that could help make him an Ayatollah one day..
In a video statement, Khamenei said that the decision was personal, adding, “This has nothing to do with political matters and is an issue between me and God.” He further noted that he had only informed two individuals about the decision and that even his father, Ali Khamenei, was unaware of his decision.
Iranian media reported that approximately 700 students were enrolled in Mojtaba Khamenei’s class, which focused on Islamic jurisprudence.
Speculation about the suspension has circulated widely, with some attributing the move to concerns over his security, given his status as a potential successor to his father. For years, the younger Khamenei has been seen as a potential successor to his father, sparking widespread debate among Iranians and online, despite limited acknowledgment or discussion from Iranian officials.
In April 2023, a leaked document reportedly from a confidential meeting between senior IRGC commanders and the Supreme Leader suggested that Mojtaba Khamenei was actively pursuing the succession project. The document also implied that Mojtaba had begun influencing high-level appointments, bypassing figures such as Ebrahim Raisi, a former frontrunner for leadership.
The theory of Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession gained further attention following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash earlier this year.
Sadegh Mohammadi, Vice President of the General Assembly of the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom, described Mojtaba Khamenei as a “jurisprudent and Muslim scholar” in March. He also suggested that Mojtaba could be “one of the future leadership candidates.”
Mojtaba Khamenei (R) with former IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani.
Concerns over a hereditary transfer of powerhave been voiced by critics within Iran, including Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a leader of the dissident Green Movement of 2010s. In a letter from August 2022, Mousavi warned of the “hereditary leadership in Iran,” citing ongoing rumors that Mojtaba Khamenei was being groomed to succeed his father. He questioned why Iranian authorities had never publicly denied these claims, “if they are not thinking of Mojtaba’s rise to the throne?””
Mojtaba Khamenei, now 55 years old, is the son-in-law of Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, a former Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. His name became more prominent in discussions of succession after Mehdi Karroubi, another leader of the Green Movement, directly accused him of playing a critical role in securing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory in the 2005 presidential election.
In 2009, following the disputed presidential election, Mojtaba Khamenei faced accusations of orchestrating electoral fraud. Protests erupted across the country, marking the birth of the Green Movement, with demonstrators chanting slogans against him.
The Shabnameh X account, which claims to bypass the censorship of the Islamic Republic and reflect the voice of the Iranian people, speculated that the suspension of Mojtaba’s lectures might signal that he is no longer being groomed as the next leader. An Iranian political analyst, speaking anonymously, told Iran International that if Mojtaba Khamenei is halting his lectures, it could indicate disagreements with his father.
The account stated, “After orchestrating the election by installing Masoud Pezeshkian, a so-called reformist, as president, Khamenei is now signaling that his second son, Mojtaba, is no longer in the running for leadership by suspending Mojtaba’s 13-year-long jurisprudence class.”
The Biden administration has expressed “deep concern” about reports from Iran that police shot a mother of two in her car last month and left her partially paralyzed, apparently for her refusal to wear a hijab as mandated.
A State Department spokesperson made the comment in a statement sent exclusively to IB on Sunday. “These reports, unfortunately, are consistent with the Iranian regime’s horrific use of gender-based violence against women and girls,” it said.
Rights activists have said 31-year-old Arezou Badri was partially paralyzed after police opened fire on her vehicle as she was driving with her sister in northern Iran’s Mazandaran province on July 22. The activists have cited sources in Iran as saying police shot Badri because her car was under a confiscation order for her refusal to wear a hijab in the vehicle.
Iranian authorities toughened enforcement this year of an Islamist law that requires women and girls to cover their hair with a hijab in public, even inside a vehicle. Iranian morality police enforcing that law in September 2022 detained and assaulted another young woman, Mahsa Amini, whose death in their custody sparked months of nationwide protests against Iran’s authoritarian Islamist rulers.
The State Department said the shooting of Badri “shows that the [Iranian] regime has learned nothing in the two years since the tragic and senseless killing of Amini … and that the regime’s violent crackdown on women and girls continues unabated.”
The spokesperson added, “The Iranian regime’s brutal treatment of women and girls is a key reason why it remains a pariah on the international stage and why young people leave the country in droves for opportunity and fundamental freedoms.”
The Iranian government tried last week to limit outrage over Badri’s shooting.
Iranian state news site Tasnim published a video on August 19, showing Badri as she lay in a hospital bed in Tehran.
In the Tasnim video, a reporter holding a microphone toward the bedridden Badri asks whether she is feeling better and eating well, and she makes several brief responses in the affirmative. Her father, standing next to the bed, also tells the reporter that his daughter is feeling better.
Iranian state media have said police opened fire on Badri’s car because it ignored orders to stop.
An Iranian judiciary spokesman told an August 20 press conference that the shooter was detained and placed under investigation, but denied there was any connection to enforcement of the hijab mandate.
She said Iranian authorities are seeking to prevent hijab-related controversies and protests from erupting as Iran approaches the second anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death next month.
VOA has not seen any reports from Iran of street protests related to the shooting of Badri since Alinejad began posting social media images and information about the case on July 29.
“The Iranian regime is trying to control the information. That is why there are so few people learning about what is going on in the hospital where Arezou is under pressure,” Alinejad said.
“As soon as I published information on my social media, I got videos from Iranian women walking unveiled in the street, referring to Arezou,” Alinejad said. “Those women said, ‘We are not going to give up. We know what happened to Arezou, but we will still take off our hijab and walk in the street until the day that we are free.’”
The United States said Monday that Israel remains under the threat of attack from Iran and its proxies, days after Lebanon’s Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel in retaliation for the assassination of a senior Hezbollah commander.
“I would point you to some of the public comments that have been made by Iranian leaders and others. … We continue to assess that there is a threat of attack, and we … remain well-postured to be able to support Israel’s defense, as well as to protect our forces should they be attacked,” Pentagon spokesperson Major General Pat Ryder told journalists.
U.S. Joints Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. CQ Brown met Monday with Israeli Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant and Chief of General Staff Gen. Herzi Halevi in Tel Aviv, discussing both the Hezbollah situation and what is happening on the battlefield in the Gaza Strip.
“The leaders reaffirmed the importance of the U.S.-Israeli strategic partnership while also discussing the most recent engagement across the Israeli-Lebanese border and the need to de-escalate tensions to avoid a broader conflict,” Joint Staff spokesperson Navy Capt. Jereal Dorsey said in a statement.
In addition to Hezbollah’s promised response for the killing of one of its commanders, Iran has pledged to respond to the assassination of a senior Hamas official in Tehran.
Speaking to Reuters, Brown said Iran wants to “do something that sends a message but they also, I think … don’t want to do something that’s going to create a broader conflict.”
Asked if the risk of an immediate widening of the conflict in the region had declined, Brown said, “Somewhat, yes.”
“You had two things you knew were going to happen. One’s already happened. Now it depends on how the second is going to play out,” Brown said.
Earlier Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Italian counterpart that Iran’s response “will be inevitable, precise and calculated,” and that Iran does not seek to escalate tensions.
Iran has blamed Israel for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, while Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement.
Gaza war
White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters Monday that Israel is “still facing an enemy in Gaza that continues to want to destroy the State of Israel.”
Kirby said Hamas still poses a “viable threat,” but that Israel has “destroyed an incredible amount of Hamas’ war-marking ability.”
“They’ve killed a high number of both senior, at the strategic level and operational and tactical, leaders from Hamas. No question they have diminished Hamas’s ability to resource itself and to man its ranks,” Kirby said.
The war in Gaza began with the October 2023 Hamas attack on southern Israel during which the U.S.-designated terror group killed about 1,200 people and took about 250 others hostage.
The Israeli military campaign of airstrikes and ground fighting has killed more than 40,400 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry. The ministry does not differentiate between fighters and civilians in its count.
After several days of higher-level talks in Cairo to try to make progress in achieving a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, working groups are continuing this week to attempt to resolve outstanding issues.
Kirby said U.S. teams, which have worked along with Egyptian and Qatari officials to mediate the talks, continue to describe the discussions as “constructive.”
He said one issue being worked on is the exchange of hostages still held by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, including the exact numbers of people on both sides and the timing of those exchanges under a potential agreement.
“We want to get it done as soon as possible,” Kirby said.
Some information for this story was provided by The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
Yahya Sinwar, the alleged architect of the deadly October 7 attack on Israel and surprise appointment as the new leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated terror group Hamas, is known to have close ties to Iran.
His appointment on August 6 as the head of the Palestinian group’s political bureau followed the assassination of his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on July 31, an act that Iran and Hamas blame on Israel.
Following the death of Haniyeh, who had strong relations with Iranian officials, the most prominent names to be considered as his successor were Khaled Meshaal, a former politburo chief of Hamas, and Khalil al-Hayya, a prominent figure within the bureau with close ties to Haniyeh.
The appointment of Sinwar, who has been the Hamas chief in Gaza since 2017, came as a big surprise because many did not take into account the Iran factor, analysts say.
“None of us experts on Palestinian affairs — especially here in Israel — thought about Sinwar as the person who would replace Haniyeh,” said Yohanan Tzoreff, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies who specializes in Israeli-Palestinian relations.
“One [major] reason why Sinwar is the [new] leader is Iran,” he added.
Khaled Meshaal (left) was believed to be a shoo-in to replace Ismail Haniyeh (right) as Hamas leader after he was assassinated in Iran.
Sinwar was appointed after two days of deliberations in Qatar by the Shura Council — a consultative body that elects the group’s politburo and has members in Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and the Palestinian diaspora.
Tzoreff said Meshaal’s criticism during the 2011 Arab Spring of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — a close ally of Tehran — made him a deeply unpopular figure among Iran’s top brass.
Tzoreff argued that Mashaal’s return to power could have jeopardized the Palestinian group’s relations with the Islamic republic and “[the Iranians] may have stopped giving Hamas everything it needs [to fight Israeli forces].”
But Sinwar is reportedly stuck in Gaza, where he has been in hiding since the start of the war with Israel in October 2023. The constraints on his movement and restricted ability to communicate with the world mean Sinwar is very limited in what he can do.
“I don’t expect him or Hamas to become closer to Iran. At this point, the relationship will likely stay the same,” said Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East and North Africa Program director at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group.
Molded By Israeli Prisons
Also known by his supporters as Abu Ibrahim, the 61-year-old Sinwar was born in the Khan Younis refugee camp in Gaza. His parents, like Haniyeh’s, fled the coastal town of Ashkelon during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War that resulted in the establishment of the state of Israel — or what Palestinians call the “nakba” (catastrophe).
Sinwar joined Hamas shortly after it was formed in 1987 and set up its feared internal security organization, Al-Majd, whose main purpose was to find Israeli spies within the group. He gained a reputation for violence and was nicknamed the “Butcher of Khan Younis.”
Sinwar was captured by Israeli forces and sentenced to multiple life terms for a variety of offenses — including the killing of two Israeli soldiers — and spent more than two decades in prison.
“He is a guy who was hardened in Israeli prisons, like many longtime Palestinian ex-prisoners,” Hiltermann said.
He said Sinwar learned Hebrew while in prison and, crucially, this helped him to learn how Israeli leaders think.
“Sinwar’s really tough. He is ruthless. He is very much a leader in the mold of any Israeli leader,” Hiltermann said.
While in prison, Sinwar organized strikes to improve working conditions and emerged as a leader among incarcerated Palestinians.
His experience in prison “prepared him very well for the leadership of Hamas” and in planning the October 7 attack, Hiltermann said.
Sinwar (left) traveled to Iran with Haniyeh to meet Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in 2012.
Nearly 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed when Hamas militants raided communities in south Israel in October and took hostages back to Gaza. The attack prompted Israel to launch a major offensive in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, which Palestinian sources say has killed more than 40,000 people.
Sinwar was released from prison in 2011 as part of an exchange that saw more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners freed in return for one Israeli soldier held by Hamas. Soon after his release, Sinwar accompanied Haniyeh on a trip to Tehran where he met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The same day Sinwar was announced as Haniyeh’s successor on August 6, Khamenei’s account on X posted a short video of that visit showing Sinwar meeting with the Iranian leader in February 2012.
Hamas’s Message
Traditionally, Hamas’s political bureau chief is based abroad so he can travel and maintain contact with regional allies, such as Iran and the Lebanese Islamic militant group Hizballah.
But Sinwar, who U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken once joked is “buried 10 stories underground” in Gaza, is unable to leave the enclave because of the war.
Tzoreff said that, by appointing a Gaza-based leader, Hamas was “sending a very strong message” to both Israel and Arab states that “the resistance of Hamas has not collapsed.”
“The main message is that nobody can push them out of the area,” he added.
Iran’s ‘Axis Of Resistance’: Different Groups, Same Goals
Sinwar himself may not be keen on leaving Gaza, because his legitimacy is based on his being in the enclave.
“If Sinwar were to leave Gaza, Palestinians would say he is abandoning them, like a captain leaving the ship,” Hiltermann said.
Sinwar has been in Israel’s sights since the beginning of the war, with army spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari describing him as a “dead man” following the October attack.
Killing Sinwar remains a priority for the Israeli army.
Chief Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi vowed on August 7 that his troops would target Sinwar and force Hamas to “replace the head of the political bureau again.”
Russia and Iran have both seen their international standing diminish in recent years. And as each seeks a way to boost their military and diplomatic influence, Africa looks like a land of opportunity.
There are no signs that Moscow and Tehran, whose bilateral ties have become closer as they each try to counter punitive international sanctions, are working in lockstep in Africa.
But their aims in the continent often align, and experts say the two are each attempting to capitalize on similar situations, including political instability, war, and apathy toward the influence of Western powers.
“Both Iran and Russia, what they see in Africa is an opportunity to break their diplomatic isolation,” said Cameron Hudson, fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “They have been isolated by the West, financially, politically — essentially branded as pariah states. And so, in Africa, they see 54 opportunities to break that status.”
Russia and Iran have stepped up their engagement with African states, some of which are wary of the West and open to finding alternative trade and investment partners. Tehran and Moscow are notably active in places of conflict, such as West Africa and the Sahel, where juntas have made clear that Western forces are not welcome.
Hudson said Moscow’s and Tehran’s involvement in Africa also has the “ancillary benefit of thumbing their nose” at the Western states behind the crippling international sanctions imposed on them.
The sanctions — imposed over Russia’s war in Ukraine and Iran’s controversial nuclear program, among other things — have effectively cut both Russia and Iran off from the global financial system and harmed their lucrative trade in arms and oil.
New Avenues
By opening new avenues of trade and influence in Africa, Moscow and Tehran can show that the attempts to isolate and punish them “is only marginally successful, and that they can build coalitions of states who support their interests,” Hudson said.
The two countries see Africa as “a battleground where they can supplant the West and better position themselves economically, politically, and even militarily for prolonged tension with the West,” said Liam Karr, an analyst with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project.
Malians demonstrate against France and in support of Russia on the 60th anniversary of the independence of the Republic of Mali in September 2020.
Karr noted that Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — former French colonies in the central Sahel where anti-Western military juntas have taken power — “have increased cooperation with Iran and Russia as they distanced themselves from France.”
The situation has already led to the expulsion of French troops from Niger and Mali. U.S. forces battling Islamist insurgents in the region have withdrawn from Niger’s capital, Niamey, and will completely leave the country by September.
The rapidly changing landscape has led to some uncomfortable situations, such as when Russian troops backing Niger’s junta were deployed in May to an air base housing U.S. soldiers.
Both Iran and Russia “use military engagement to ‘get their foot in the door’ with unstable or other isolated countries to pursue greater economic and political cooperation,” Karr explained. Such military engagement, he added, also “allows them to use limited resources to threaten critical waterways, such as the Mediterranean and the Red Sea.”
‘Opportunity In Chaos’
Moscow’s influence is marked by high-level political engagement, business dealings including arms sales, and the ubiquitous presence of pro-Kremlin mercenaries in conflict areas.
“Russia finds opportunity in chaos. And so, when there is political instability in a country, when there is a kind of organic rejection of the West, which we have seen in a lot of states in Africa that view the West as a kind of neocolonial actor, then that creates openings and opportunities for Russia to come in with its narrative,” Hudson said.
Russia’s military footprint is also the most hazardous, as evidenced by the deaths of scores of Russian Wagner mercenaries in fighting against Tuareg separatists linked to the Al-Qaeda terrorist network in Mali last month.
Both Iran and Russia have offered military support to the armed forces in Sudan in their fight against rebels. (file photo)
Iran is playing catch-up to its Russian ally, working to expand its influence on the continent through trade ties, arms sales, and the use of proxies and militant partners as part of its “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West in general.
In West Africa, Iran has reached out to the trio of juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. In Nigeria, Tehran has established a proxy group called the Islamic Movement of Nigeria, which functions like other proxies and partners.
Tehran has also used proxies to make its presence felt across the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, allowing it to put more pressure on regional adversaries, primarily Israel.
‘Aligned Interests’
Iran’s and Russia’s interest in Africa sometimes overlaps, as is the case in Niger and in Sudan, where both are playing a role in the yearlong civil war between the Sudanese military and rebel forces.
“Sudan is a clear area where they both have military interests. Iran and Russia have both offered military support to the Sudanese Armed Forces hoping to secure a military base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast that would enable them to improve their military posture in the area vis-à-vis the West,” Karr said. “Iran has offered drones, whereas Russia has offered ‘unrestricted qualitative military aid.'”
Juntas that have taken power in Mali and Niger, meanwhile, are looking to Moscow and Tehran to fortify their positions.
“They certainly lack legitimacy in the West and among international institutions, and so building relations to Iran or to Russia helps them build legitimacy, because all of a sudden they look like state actors,” Hudson said. “They look like they’re doing the trade and diplomacy that a legitimate government would do.”
Both Karr and Hudson say there are no clear signs that Russia and Iran are coordinating their strategies in Africa.
Karr said that “similar aims and methods mean that most of their efforts mutually reinforce each other,” while Hudson noted “a set of aligned interests, but not interests that are being explicitly coordinated.”
A new report says Iran is preparing to export Fath-360 and Ababil close-range ballistic missiles (CRBMs) to Russia and has started training Russian personnel to use the former.
There have been several reports since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 claiming Iran was gearing up to sell or had already supplied Russia with ballistic missiles. None of the reports was confirmed by U.S. or Ukrainian officials, and Iran continues to deny having armed or planning to arm Russia.
Analysts who spoke to RFE/RL were unsure about the latest report but added that if confirmed it would provide a boon for Russia’s war efforts and have both benefits and pitfalls for Iran.
Russia’s use of North Korean ballistic missiles briefly allayed concerns Moscow would turn to Iran to restock its inventory.
“However, the extensive demands of the battlefield may have strained North Korea’s supply capabilities,” Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told RFE/RL.
She said Moscow might be seeking Iranian ballistic missiles as a strategy to “lessen its dependence on North Korea,” which would allow Russia to play off Pyongyang and Tehran against each other, “potentially maximizing its strategic benefits.”
A visit to Tehran on August 6 by Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, who previously served as the country’s defense minister, fueled suspicions that Moscow was seeking to acquire Iranian missiles.
From Drones To Missiles
Since the early months of the Ukraine war, Russia was suspected of using Iranian-made Shahed and Mohajer-6 drones, many of which have been found after being shot down in Ukrainian cities and battlefields. Iran initially denied arming Russia before relenting and admitting that it had supplied “a limited number of drones” to Moscow before the war.
Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Tehran continues to deny that its drones are being used by Russia against Ukraine. That has not stopped the United States and EU from imposing sanctions on Iran for helping Moscow.
Grajewski said Iranian drones “had a comparative advantage over the Russian ones in terms of technology, manufacturing, and operational use.” But with ballistic missiles, it “is about quantity, not quality.”
Aside from the reputational boost that would come from supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, Iran would also gain significant knowledge about how Fath-360 and Ababil perform in battle.
In addition, Grejewski said, the “operational use and any Russian modifications would potentially help Iran with some areas where its missiles tend to be lacking.”
Earlier reports suggested Russia was eyeing Iran’s Fateh-110 and Zolfaqar short-range ballistic missiles. But exporting those to Russia would put Iran in violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) range and payload thresholds, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
However, Fath-360 and Ababil are under the 300 km and 500 kg thresholds established by the MTCR.
“Nonetheless, that does not mean [CRBMs] should be ignored, as they help Russia conserve their own domestically produced long-range strike assets and are further signs of a deepening Russo-Iranian relationship,” Taleblu argued.
Taking Risks To Grow Partnership
Not contravening the MTCR would still draw the ire of Western nations if Iran ends up supplying Russia with ballistic missiles.
UN restrictions on Iran’s imports and exports of missiles expired in October 2023, but the United States and the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) as well as the wider EU extended ballistic-missile sanctions against Iran.
Iran unveiled the Mohajer-10 drone in 2023 and showcased it in Russia this month.
“The E3 was resolute in their warnings to Iran,” Grajewski said. “The supply of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would complicate any solution with the Iranian nuclear program.”
Talks on restoring the nuclear deal have stalled and the agreement is set to expire in October 2025, so Iran may be looking to bolster its relations with Russia in case the prospects for reviving the deal disappear.
Iran took part in Russia’s annual army exhibition, which was held in Moscow on August 12-14, and showcased some of its latest military technology including the Mohajer-10 drone — the updated version of the Mohajer-6 that Russia has used in Ukraine.
U.S. Says Growing Iran-Russia Military Ties ‘Should Concern’ World
But Grajewski argued that more notable was the presence in Moscow of Brigadier General Ali Shadmani, a deputy commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters that is responsible for the operational command and control of Iran’s armed forces.
Taleblu said Iran had received a combination of things for arming Russia with drones, including cash and gold, and maintained that “these vectors of cooperation are likely set to deepen.”
“Iran is intent on moving up from the status of junior partner to Russia, which is one reason why the arms cooperation between the two over Ukraine is unlikely to be compartmentalized,” he added.
The Iraqi militia group Kata’ib Hezbollah, backed by Iran’s IRGC Quds Force, has been linked to recent terrorist plots targeting Jewish centers in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, as Tehran seeks to expand its influence beyond the Middle East.
Kata’ib Hezbollah, also known as Hezbollah Brigades, is an Iraqi Shia militia formed in 2007. Aligned closely with Iran, the group is a part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq. The US-designated group’s activities are heavily backed by Iran through training, weapons, and financial support.
Beyond Iraq, Kata’ib Hezbollah has extended its operations to Syria, where it fights alongside other Iranian-backed militias in support of the Bashar Al-Assad regime, and now to Central Asia.
Sources have confirmed to Iran International that Kataib Hezbollah has been carrying out terrorist activities in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan through a Tajik operative identified Muhammad Ali Burhanov, also known as Sayed Hamid al-Tajiki.
The Iraqi militant group’s operation in Central Asia was first reported by Terror Alarm on X earlier this month.
Burhanov, who has been linked to multiple attacks in Central Asia, reportedly studied at Al-Mustafa University in Iran—a known recruitment hub for Tehran-backed militant groups. This university, operating under the Islamic Propaganda Bureau of the Qom Seminary, has branches in nearly 60 countries and serves as Iran’s primary instrument for spreading Shi’ism internationally.
Al-Mustafa University had earlier drawn scrutiny, particularly in 2020 when it was allocated a budget of nearly 5 trillion rials, or approximately $100 million at the time, making it the most heavily funded university in Iran. The United States sanctioned the university in December 2020 for recruiting Afghan and Pakistani students to fight in Syria, with Canada following suit in October 2022 for its role in recruiting foreign fighters.
The involvement of Burhanov and his operatives in Central Asia is reportedly supported by the IRGC Quds Force’s Department 400, with direct involvement from senior officials such as Hossein Rahmani and Hossein Rahban. These figures are instrumental in recruiting young militiamen and collaborating with various extremist groups, including Jihadists, ISIS, and the Taliban.
Recent operations linked to Burhanov for Kata’ib Hezbollah have included a failed gunfire attack on the Jewish Agency offices in Almaty, an attempted arson at the Ohr Avner Jewish Center in Almaty, and arson attacks on a farm owned by Saxovat Broyler Co. in Tashkent and a warehouse owned by Neostream Co. in Almaty.
Iran has a long history of hostility towards Jews, often manifesting through both direct and indirect actions. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iranian government has embraced an openly anti-Israel stance, which has frequently spilled over into broader anti-Semitic rhetoric and actions.
The government has supported and funded various proxy groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, which have carried out attacks against Jewish targets, both in the Middle East and globally. Iran’s involvement in bombings, such as the 1994 attack on the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people, highlights its longstanding agenda of targeting Jewish communities far beyond its borders. The Islamic Republic’s anti-Semitic propaganda, denial of the Holocaust, and calls for the destruction of Israel further fuel this deep-seated enmity, creating an environment where anti-Jewish violence is not only tolerated but encouraged.
Israel and Hezbollah have stepped back from a regional war—for now. While daily rocket barrages persist along the Israel-Lebanon border, no clear winners have emerged, and the situation remains fragile and uncertain.
It was August 25 around 4:30 in the morning when Sarit Zehavi heard loud explosions.
“Literally the ground was shaking.”
She didn’t know what was happening.
“The blasts were truly something that we have never heard in the past.”
It was the IDF launching preemptive air strikes in Southern Lebanon to thwart a major attack after Israeli intelligence gathered information on the incoming threat, according to IDF officials.
Israel prevented Hezbollah’s full response to the killing of its Chief of Staff Fuad Shukr on July 30 from materializing.
Iran’s proxy was meant to reportedly carry out hundreds of rockets and UAV strikes in Israel, while also firing accurate missiles at security targets near Tel Aviv. It was described as a large-scale ariel attack by Hezbollah, according to the IDF.
Sarit Zehavi specialized in the IDF’s military intelligence and now runs an organization researching and analyzing Israel’s security challenges in the North, but above all she is an Israeli Northern citizen herself, who lives with Hezbollah just 9 kilometers from her doorstep.
Sarit Zehavi at the Alma Research Centre in Northern Israel.
This is her reality. Since October 7, there have been daily attacks in the North and more than 60 thousand Northern Israeli residents are refugees in their own country.
And that also affects the economy with thousands of Northerners not at work, and those who remain, risking their lives to cultivate the fields and farm. The ongoing war against Hamas has tested Israel’s economy, and opening up a second front with Hezbollah could cripple it.
“All of us civilians of the North that morning ran to the bomb shelters, including myself and my family. It just didn’t stop for about more than an hour. Since this war started, I was very much afraid of a scenario of fire to all over the borderline, because I was afraid that with this scenario, we will see an infiltration as well,” said Zehavi.
There has been a weekly average of 60 Hezbollah attacks in the North since the start of the war 10 months ago, which amounts to 2,804 attacks so far, according to Zehavi.
Hezbollah and its allies have been threatening a retaliatory attack since the assassination of Shukr, which Israel claimed responsibility for. The Iran-backed Hezbollah said in a statement that this “first phase” of retaliation was “successfully completed”.
Nasrallah made a televised speech after the heavy exchange of fire. In it, he said the main focus of Hezbollah’s attack was the Glilot base north of Tel Aviv, which is home to the Mossad and the military intelligence group Unit 8200.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah speaks in a televised address after Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy fire [Handout/Al-Manar TV via Reuters]
He rejected statements by Israeli officials that the attack had failed, saying that Israel was keeping information on the damage “a secret”.
Many of Hezbollah’s rockets are unguided, but it also has precision missiles, drones and anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles. Since the 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah has advanced its capabilities.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Hezbollah was “thrown off balance” and its attempted attack on Israel. He said Israel prevented Hezbollah’s attack minutes before it was supposed to be carried out.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani posted to X that Israel has lost its “deterrent” power, saying it was unable to anticipate the time and place of Hezbollah’s “limited and managed attack.”
Any real winners?
With both sides claiming victory, there appears to be no real winners.
Zehavi referred to Israel’s operation as a “success” and “achievement” with “limitations.”
According to IDF statements, Israel attacked 270 Hezbollah targets, destroyed a few thousand launcher barrels, being careful to not cripple all of Hezbollah capacities in an effort to prevent a full-scale war.
Both parties can’t risk a regional war – at least not yet.
“I think that Nasrallah is not interested in a full-scale war. But the problem is it is willing to take the risk?” said Zehavi.
The Iran-backed group possesses upwards of 150,000 missiles and rockets, according to the World Factbook of the US Central Intelligence Agency.
“It’s something about Armageddon. We are not frightened from that. Israel is capable to defend itself,” said Beni Sabti, a researcher in the Iran program at INSS.
Sabti said Israel’s weekend strike likely hit around less than 1 percent of all the ammunition Hezbollah has, but since most of their rockets are short range, the key is to keep pushing Hezbollah farther from the border.
Hezbollah said it has rockets that can hit all areas of Israel with precision, but the majority of their arsenal are unguided and short range.
Iranian-made guided missile al-Mas on display
“I think that Iran regime and also Hezbollah understood that they have a limit,” said Sabti.
He said Iran’s government and Hezbollah leaders wouldn’t also want to risk losing wealth and power amassed over the years.
Hezbollah, is listed as a terrorist entity in the US and Canada, but has participated in national elections since 1992 and has become a major political presence in Lebanon and would not want to jeopardize its political authority in the country.
The Lebanese currency was devalued by more than 98% between January 2023 and March 2024, with an annual inflation rate of 221.3% in 2023, according to the World Bank.
Iran’s foreign minister told his Qatari counterpart on Monday that the Islamic Republic will support any ceasefire deal agreed by Hamas.
“We will support any agreement that our friends in the Palestinian resistance and Hamas approve”, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told Qatar’s Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
This could be read as a sign that Iran isn’t going to retaliate against Israel, understanding as Sabti pointed out, their so-called limitations. Despite that the US is continuing to boost its military presence in the region in anticipation of a major escalation.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Monday, “We must assume Iran remains postured and prepared to attack Israel.” He described Hezbollah’s attack on Israel over the weekend as “sizeable.”
The preemptive attack doesn’t signal a change in Israel’s strategy and likely prevented anything big from happening, showing success by acting on intelligence, said Sabti.
A game of political theatre?
Robert Springborg, an academic and Middle East expert, described Israel and Hezbollah’s conflict as “political theatre” with “a lot of collateral damage.”
“Each side is playing to its own constituency and trying to demonstrate to its enemy that it has potential, which it can escalate at any time. They’ve been engaged in shadowboxing now, basically since October 7th of last year. This is yet another round of that. Neither side believes that they could triumph without huge cost to themselves,” said Springborg, an adjunct professor at Simon Fraser University [SFU], and fellow at the Italian Institute of International Affairs.
He believes that full-blown war was never a real option on the table for either party, saying that the regional actors are playing a “role” and can’t take major risks.
Springborg pointed to Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel in April, with an unprecedented number of ballistic missiles fired in a single military operation. The retaliation came nearly two weeks after Israel’s attack on an Iranian consulate in Syria, which killed two top Iranian generals.
While on one hand Iran’s move opened up the prospect of further escalation, it also involved extensive advance warning to Israeli air defenses. That ultimately allowed enough time for the majority of the drones and missiles to be intercepted before reaching their targets. He saw that as part of the political theatre.
“I don’t think a bigger regional war was ever on the cards,” he said.
